Monday, 18 June 2012

Selling into Greek Election Euphoria : Gold , Yoma, Kepcorp, HSi

Now for some hindsight reasoning for the "supporting" fundamentals  : 

For the past 2 weeks, the big boys had been buying into this one-month-plus-long fear called "Greek elections" probably in anticipation of  either a pro-bailout victory or massive liquidity injection by central banks in case of a pro-blackmail Syriza party victory     .... 

By aggregating possible votes to be garnered by the pro-bailout  parties ( New Democracy and Pasok plus a few smaller parties ) , votes that they estimated from pre-election polls , the bigboys had probably figured out  that pro-euro parties will have enough votes to form a coalition either way and this explains the little rally we saw last week .. 

Add in a little pressure from ECB , to create liquidity events in Greece through bank runs & empty ATMs &  suspended credit for supply of basic utilities & essential goods from rest of europe , ECB had apparently convinced the Greeks that their  endless game of chicken has been played too far for their own good  ..  and this little appetitiser or rehearsal  to "drachmageddon" is just the beginning  of something much bigger if Greeks vote for more blackmail  ...

Now that the election is over and the public is at maximum euphoria ( though   bailout-addicted greece will continue to demand  further bailouts & no austerity until they are eventually kicked out of eurozone  maybe after german elections )   ,  i guess today is  the time for the big boys to sell into strength  what  they  accumulated in last 2 weeks for this moment of  election results  .. 

now for the actions taken on technicals  :

2 weeks ago in early jun ,  the dow & hsi  & gold had hit a nice bottom... I bought some gold n euro  - made some, cut some at break even ..  I  bought  again some Gold on retrace recently ( see last post )   at 1581 ahead of  the "massive liquidity injection post greek elections "  rumour    ( actually it was purely the  charts that told me to enter , not the news flow  of which i can only know after the event    )  ... I  got out my first half  at 1624 and then final half at 1630  as planned last friday( see chart in prev post - again it was charts that told me to get out , not the greek elections )   before Gold spiked down this morning to 1616 briefly after Greek elections.. but it had  recovered somewhat since then ..maybe in anticipation of coming  fomc this week .. 

I went long on friday with some small  amount of  HSi call wrts, kepcorp wrts, yoma ( but  i have not found time to post this part over the weekend  ) 

When HSi & dow futures   hit my euphoric supply levels this morning at open on a big gap up ( 19620 for hsi futures, 12800 for dow futures )  ,   i could not help  but dump all my longs acquired last friday  & go a little short  ( see below )   --  short i did  at about  9.15am hsi open with a small amount of  HSi put wrts  & hoping to cover tomorrow at a small profit ..


Thursday, 14 June 2012

QE3 play before Greek elections : Gold

Gold entry on  demand  at 1581 ( see bottom-left white zone  & center-top of  price ladder  )  , exited half on 1624 ( second top white zone  & price ladder  )   .. hoping to ride remaining to 1630 ( see topmost  white zone) before Greek elections ..

Wednesday, 6 June 2012

QE 3 rally or dead cat bounce ? 3 charts : Yoma , Gold , Kepcorp

Yoma selling plan -  to take half profits at 43.5 (  8 jun update --  sensing strong supply at 43 yesterday morning ,  i sold 2/3 of my yoma  soon after  open  yesterday 7 jun  at 41.5-42     - see order book below-bottom most pic   ) and then progressively sell remainder   towards 15 jun - last day of rights trading  and for those with guts towards  22 jun , last day of rights share subscription --  Note Greek elections is 17 June   
see today's chart immediately below and compare with yoma chart from  2 post ago 31 may : " Riding on  yoma rights"

31 may yoma XR - adjusted chart above

29 may yoma pre- XR chart above

QE3 ? Gold breaks out ! entry = USD 1620,  next target -- USD 1640( taken half profit at 1640 n other half stopped out at 1620  updated 7 jun 2012  )  then 1650 per oz

Kepcorp bounced off my 2 recent bottoms ( $9.90 & $ 9.90 ) with some precision though I made a bad call for a dead cat bounce  to $10.50 recently 
see chart immediately below from  8 may post  and  today's chart -  bottom most chart - of course this does not preclude more deeper bottoms to come as european crisis gets worse  

yoma sale done on 7 jun  - updated on 8 jun