Sunday, 7 October 2012

Catching falling knives , pre-breakouts , unfinished reactions, tops and bottoms ? : Noble , Skyone, Yoma , Interra, Suntec, Oceanus ( with later updates on Oceanus, skyone, yoma, interra , STi appended to the bottom to evaluate clockwork precision of recent predictions )


General picture : STi 

3 post ago, in a post dated 19 sept ( titled : Global QE unlimited  :last tango in pennies- click here ) i posted a chart for STi , the only STi chart since , expecting  this QE3 rally to suffer a reaction at 3109.  see  that old chart with "as is" trajectory below .. last friday , our STi closed exactly at  3107 after hitting a high of 3110...we will see what reaction  this week will bring ..(  see latest update from Mr Market at post-mortem section at the bottom of this post ) 






Catching a falling knife ?  :   Noble

two post ago or about 2 weeks ago  ( click here  ) , I predicted , albeit with low confidence, that Noble  will fall from 1.35 to 1.28 to have a bounce there  .. 3 trading days ago ( thurs)  Noble came crashing like a falling knife to 1.28 and had a rebound on thurs, fri . ( see below ) as xx futures hit a bottom at 1500.

 on wed, like clockwork ,  Noble hit  my reaction floor at 1.28 like a falling knife( see  circled long red candle in second chart below )  , at a point where i would be covering  my shorts,  and bounce.

 I reproduce my old Noble chart here with its  "as is " trajectory .. and today's Noble chart for comparison..

above : old Noble chart on 21 sept with its "as is "  trajectory ( click here for  old post )




 

Unfinished reactions ? : First Resources



small breakouts , anyone ? - Skyone




 Short-term peaks ? : Yoma , Interra , Suntec 

Last few days , many readers have email me regarding the status of Yoma given its relentless run to date. Actually I have an internal short term btarget of 57c for this run which i did not publish for fear of encountering a strong reaction at 53c for which readers might blame me for dragging them through. . As such I was only too happy to  let my published pumping trajectory end at 53c.

I had sold 1/3 of my Yoma tues at 54.5c leaving the rest to ride to thurs when i sold another 1/3 thurs at 57.5c . the rest I will wait & see .


     above -- Yoma old chart dated 25 sept with "as is" pumping trajectory






above : Yoma chart today fri

Other Short-term peaks :  Interra , Suntec
















Entrapment at the toxic bottom ? :  Oceanus 


There being not many bottoms left around  to pick in this QE3 environment , my stock scans turned to scrapping the bottom of the SGX barrel , the most toxic of toxic pennies that have not yet rallied. These pennies, mostly 'S' chips or 'S-like' chips ,  had suffered many a bad reputation in the past for destroying shareholder value with company management siphoning off company assets into private pockets with such religious fanatical  zeal ,  that many fundamental analysts with a reputation to protect are afraid to cover them ,   leaving the cheerleading job to  selected "technical analysts"  usually engaged on contract basis  by stock operators to guide the public to buy and sell at precisely the wrong time.. in other words, to shepherd the public into the operator's slaughter house. 

Now , it so happens on wed 3 oct , 20 mins before market close , DJ News wire threw the restless public  a little bone to chew ( maybe from the Oceanus operator, maybe not  )   - a technical analysis report from a local broking house ( I  here replace name of the broking house  with xxx brokerage  in order not to insinuate anyone )  tipping for a buy on Oceanus with target 7c.

I reproduce that report here :
DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07 Target - xxx brokerage 03 Oct 2012 16:41
0841 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Charts tip Oceanus (579.SG) as a Technical Buy with S$0.07 target, xxx brokerage technical analysis says. "The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX. (leslie.shaffer@dowjones.com)

I have no clue on what Oceanus does - and whether its a good company with good governance or a typical toxic S-chip company or a hybrid somewhere inbetween   ..and I don't really care .

Curiousity tickles the cat, so a little check into Oceanus website  told me that it deals with farming & distribution of abalone and  other sea creatures eg. sea cucumber , lobster ,crayfish as well.  They even opened ah yat seafood restaurant outlets.

Further checks on the internet told me this company can destroy shareholder value  through  impairment of assets, like declaring its abalone crop compromised by some disease  or some environmental hazards.

Most auditors are not trained to tell a healthy live abalone from a sick one, or a plastic one , let alone in murky bubbly waters of an abalone farm .  so this type of business could potentially be an easy platform for fishing in troubled waters -   
混水摸() .  

the famous cases of sinoforest, guangzhou industrial forestry biotech readily spring to mind where their major core bio-assets are vaporware - can be made to appear or disappear at the snap of the CEO's fingers, depending on status of money transfer from your account to their accounts.  

From the share price performance in the last 3 years ( dropping from 47c to 5c now ) , oceanus abalone must never have felt sicker     ..of late,  I  thought that maybe this year,  just maybe , (  not that I know anything about oceanus or the abalone business or ever having eaten one before )  that they might just want to declare a healthy, bumper abalone crop just to pump the share price in this favorable QE3 environment..so that some directors can unload their shares .. any pumping story to suck in the public will do -- myanmese abalones , angry abalones , iCloud abalones, android abalones, organic genetically modified abalones - whatever.

anyway  I checked  on insider trades in oceanus , there was an open market sales by one director Yu de hua of 14,549,000 shares at 5c-5.1c  from 7 to 27 sept . and there was a business dispute between Yu dehua and Dr Ng cher chew resulting in transfer of 446,317,492  shares from Dr Ng to Yu Dehua who appears to be in a dumping mood  , after being removed from his CEO post recently  - i don't know what to make of all these 'insider trades' & 'disputes' but i wouldn't want to get in the way of   share dumping  by an ex- ceo who knows better than anyone else  the true worth of  his ex-company .

I don't know if this is just coincidence or orchestrated , just as  Oceanus appeared in the top volume chart  on wed , the xxx broker report was released by DJ news wire just 20 mins into market close with a 7c target inducing the public to buy .

the following thurs morning ,  Oceanus appeared in top vol chart again sucking in punters in the first hour only to find strong unloading by operator throughout the day & also through  friday with sizeable buy queues of 10,000 lots and many 'buys' of 300 lots each.
On fri/sat /sunday , feeling bad about Oceanus & how some of my readers could have bought oceanus based on the xxx broker report posted  , I sent out  the following warning note to  readers who emailed me  previously   :

" i think oceanus operator is probably trying to entrap the public by creating false activity ( appearing in top vol chart since wed)  and through timely release of  technical analysis reports    to induce public to buy oceanus  at 5.1-5.3  thinking it will go 7c  then flush the stock down to 4.5c next week to cause a force-sell or cut  loss from the public so that the operator can cover his shorts  at 4.5-4.7.  pse do not share this info with anyone else  as this is just only my half-baked private speculation opinion ...disclaimer applies.. I know nothing about oceanus' business  or the intentions of their operators or even if they exist at all -  so they could be a figment of my bad imagination  ".






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POST-MORTEM ANALYSIS  :  what happens  to market after above post  dated 7 oct  

below is  evaluation of clockwork precision  : comparision of "as is"  predicted trajectory of  recent charts with realization in  latest charts  as events unfold after 7 oct 

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update on oceanus -- 10 oct 2012
comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is"  trajectory( top)  with latest chart 10 oct ( bottom) ..


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Skyone - comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is" trajectory( top chart )  and new chart 10 oct 2012 ( bottom )  : 



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Yoma - compare top chart prediction of a peak   5 oct  vs bottom  chart  12 oct realisation 











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Interra - comparing top chart 5 oct prediction of a peak   vs  bottom chart realization  12 oct 


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STi - compare top chart from  19 sept post="global QE unlimited -last tango in pennies  ( click here for post )    with "as is " trajectory  vs  today's chart ( bottom )




19 comments:

ck said...

Hi Bill E~ Happen to chance upon your blog. I am not a pro trader so Juz wondering bout your views on Sky one?

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill

Just wondering if you normally contra (buy then sell or do naked sell before buying back on the day)

Do you happen to know which brokerage house can short Yoma.. Mine doesnt allow. Thanks.

Lynn

ck said...

Oh yah btw I also interested in lessons on trading.

Bill E said...

watch China Minzhong - looks strong to me - now 79.5c

Anonymous said...

Wow, bill u are fast at predicting =) What's ur view on STI currently? Can still enter stocks now?

Ck said...

Hi bill, hw bout sky one? Interested in ur lessons too

Bill E said...

Ck, write me an email to ..tks

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

How do see the market heading for Midas I am holding this do you thin it's ok?

Bill E said...

Midas - not sure , i don't like the technicals - looks like neither here nor there- not much meat left at least in short-term.

KY said...

Hi Bill,

China Minzhong is now at 0.835, do u reckon further upside or otherwise?

Thanks!

maruikun said...

Hi Bill,

What's your view on LionGold? Alot of huge buy ups but no price action.

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill

Thanks for your advise

Dimpy said...

Technical indicators MACD and RSI giving weak signal for STI today 12-Oct. STI having Resistance @ 3050 and above this level it may take resistance from 3085-3115 levels.

ref: SGX Singapore

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

Anyway I find your analysis and views extremely interesting.. I am very impressed. Jus curious, you as a 'swing' trader use more of technical or fundamental analysis?

Maybe you could specific a ratio between these 2 for your trades?

Thanks!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Bill E said...

Hi Lynn,

I missed your question right at the top ..

I don't know which brokerage house has facilities for shorting Yoma - could anyone out there who knows please inform this 'forum' or email me quietly so that I can forward to Lynn who of course has to send me an email first.

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

Can help whether should I sold my Marco Polo seem no activity for long time.

Rgds

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

Also Tiong Woon been holding it for quite a while.

Thanks

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