Monday, 29 October 2012

Live portrait of a stock operation : Dukang ( with later updates on Aussino )

In the last post( click here )  , I described my stock operation model of Dukang , and from my hypothesis , I made a prediction of Dukang going for a high volume churn to suck in the public for the operator to take profit at 35.5c(  later upgraded to 38 for an intraday overshoot ) . 

Well, so far, so good...

 today my prediction trajectory  was borne out  almost exactly as predicted , thus lending some credence to my operator model of Dukang, and reinforcing my "understanding" of stock operations in general ..and i hope yours too. 

see below charts for "before and after" comparisons..

Before  : above is original "as is" Dukang chart on 23 oct with prediction of profit taking at 35.5 and a high vol churn coming .... 

After : above is Dukang chart today 29 oct 1330hrs - realization of prediction of high volume churn coming & profit taking starting at 35.5c with intraday overshoot to 37c

Above : dukang chart on 24 oct predicting a possible intraday overshoot to 38c then profit taking down to 31-32c  area maybe for a bounce - how strong is the bounce ? , I don't know yet ..we'll see .... don't put too much faith into longer term  prediction trajectories too far out  -- operator may react to unforseen dynamic market conditions or maybe even to public reactions to what is written in blogs/forums/media  - so  buy at your own risk.

********** below is dukang chart updated 30 oct ************

******below aussino charts  12 oct prediction     (  (( click here for 15 oct post- myanmese triple dumps  ) vs 31 oct *****

Monday, 22 October 2012

Strong & weak stocks in a volatile market : Yoma, Interra, Yanlord, Noble , oceanus ( with later updates on Dukang )

Last week after my yanlord post indicating a breakout to 1.30 to have a reaction down then possibly 1.33 afterwards , a reader by name of James wrote me regarding a possible entry into Yanlord.  

Because I knew the dow was near an important peak, expecting a strong down reaction from the dow coming anytime, I told him to wait ( see my email to him below on the 18 oct  last thurs where i told him to wait for an impending  severe dow reaction to enter yanlord at 1.245) .  

That turns out to be a good call , not quite,  because though the dow did hit my peak and reversed,  it did not crash on thurs nite as i expected but come friday nite the dow did crashed about 200 pts and yanlord crashed from 1.295 when James wrote me to 1.255 today. 

on thurs nite,  in line with my expectation of an impending dow crash, i also told another  reader Nazeril to expect some selling of Noble at 1.37 come  friday morning  .. see below mail . Noble open at 1.37 on friday and came crashing to 1.345 today.

Actually i think the dow still has another 190 pts to fall from last friday close , though it may come in smaller bites I won't be chasing stocks at this moment.. 

Email with James on  Yanlord

Bill E           Oct 18 (4 days ago)
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to james

Hi James ,

  i dun like to buy on breakouts

 i just hope that the reaction( at 1.30  -see chart ) will bring  it down for me 
to enter lower - for this we need a bad dow nite , 
 tonite the dow should shoot up 40-50 pts to an important peak then 
react down  - i hope the reaction will be so severe  that we get a chance
 to enter cheap  maybe at 1.245  - 
that's my plan but a plan is a plan , may not pan out.  
so  patience is key ..

james                         Oct 18 (4 days ago) 
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to me

Hi Bill
I see I see.. ok I shall wait n see how it pans out!  Thanks~

*****************************************************************Email with Nazeril on Noble peak

Nazeril               Oct 18 (4 days ago)  
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to me
Hi Bill, 

Could I still seek some advice from u? 
Will the trend for noble and olam be bearish or bull? 

Thanks for ur advice and hope to continue reading ur blog. 

Best Regards

Sent from my iPhone
Bill E       Oct 18 (4 days ago)
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to Nazeril

short term , noble may face some selling pressure at 1.37

   Yoma & Interra 

Alas, as a result of my general bearishness, I  made an overly bearish  call regarding the depth of correction to  yoma and interra after correctly pointing out the peaks at 57c and 45c respectively  - they both corrected halfway to my reaction  targets and turned up strong thurs & today  -- my apologies for the missed opportunities to go long.

Fortunately, yoma and interra are not shortable stocks, so I guess none of my readers lost any money from that  recent call  if they had sold at the 57 & 45 peaks respectively following my post or  do nothing afterwards..what they lost are missed opportunities to go long , i hope........

 if anyone made any losses on shorting yoma or interra  , pse email me..actually I would be interested in any shorting facilities for these 2 stocks ... 

At current moment , it appears that yoma and interra are the two hottest stock on the sgx .. I will study carefully these 2 stocks before making anymore  calls..   a stock that rises 6% in response to a 200 pt dow crash must have swallowed some big cans of  spinach or red bull.

Oceanus  - what ever happened to this toxic penny ?
One stock which i cannot be too bearish over is Oceanus.

Ever since my 7 oct  post( click here ) ,where  I alerted readers to  entrapment activity by the operator to induce the public to buy at 5.3c using top volume churning and TA analyst reports( for samples,  see below in blue  )  with 7c targets to suck in the public to buy ,  Oceanus has been on an inexorable downward trajectory ever since, dropping from 5.3c to 3.7c today .
03 Oct 2012 16:41
DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07 Target - xxx brokerage house
0841 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Charts tip Oceanus (579.SG) as a Technical Buy with S$0.07 target, xxx brokerage house technical analysis says. "The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX. (
 today it hit 3.7c , my internal ultimate downfall  target..though I did put one intermediate downfall target  at 4.5 recently but it rested there for only 3 days( see chart below)  before it  got busted like a crushed coke can under a roller truck ,    so I still would be afraid to buy or fish in this very toxic bottom of the SGX ocean  .. why ?

because it  appears the ex-ceo Yu Dehua has some 300m +shares to dump after getting the divorce letter from Dr Ng. and I  guess I would not want to get in his way.

where would oceanus stop dropping - I don't want to speculate either ..  because the supply demand equation is clearly in the hands of Mr Yu dehua .. with 300+m shares to dump, he is clearly the 800 pound gorilla in the room together with Dr Ng. ...  and when 2 gorillas get into a real fight , you won't want to stand in their way .. As ex-ceo of oceanus, I am sure he knows the true worth of his company better than any one else  .. if he the  big insider is selling , why should the little outsiders be buying  ? and I am not sure this 800 pound gorilla  from S-chip land would be consulting my technical targets  when he dumps ... this is probably a case where true fundamentals triumphs over technicals.

anyway below are the 2 charts , one from my 5 oct post calling for an entrapment to this 'toxic' penny and today's chart.

Dukang - top chart  updated 24 oct ,  bottom chart updated 23 oct before market close has a computation error -sorry 

Sunday, 7 October 2012

Catching falling knives , pre-breakouts , unfinished reactions, tops and bottoms ? : Noble , Skyone, Yoma , Interra, Suntec, Oceanus ( with later updates on Oceanus, skyone, yoma, interra , STi appended to the bottom to evaluate clockwork precision of recent predictions )

General picture : STi 

3 post ago, in a post dated 19 sept ( titled : Global QE unlimited  :last tango in pennies- click here ) i posted a chart for STi , the only STi chart since , expecting  this QE3 rally to suffer a reaction at 3109.  see  that old chart with "as is" trajectory below .. last friday , our STi closed exactly at  3107 after hitting a high of 3110...we will see what reaction  this week will bring ..(  see latest update from Mr Market at post-mortem section at the bottom of this post ) 

Catching a falling knife ?  :   Noble

two post ago or about 2 weeks ago  ( click here  ) , I predicted , albeit with low confidence, that Noble  will fall from 1.35 to 1.28 to have a bounce there  .. 3 trading days ago ( thurs)  Noble came crashing like a falling knife to 1.28 and had a rebound on thurs, fri . ( see below ) as xx futures hit a bottom at 1500.

 on wed, like clockwork ,  Noble hit  my reaction floor at 1.28 like a falling knife( see  circled long red candle in second chart below )  , at a point where i would be covering  my shorts,  and bounce.

 I reproduce my old Noble chart here with its  "as is " trajectory .. and today's Noble chart for comparison..

above : old Noble chart on 21 sept with its "as is "  trajectory ( click here for  old post )


Unfinished reactions ? : First Resources

small breakouts , anyone ? - Skyone

 Short-term peaks ? : Yoma , Interra , Suntec 

Last few days , many readers have email me regarding the status of Yoma given its relentless run to date. Actually I have an internal short term btarget of 57c for this run which i did not publish for fear of encountering a strong reaction at 53c for which readers might blame me for dragging them through. . As such I was only too happy to  let my published pumping trajectory end at 53c.

I had sold 1/3 of my Yoma tues at 54.5c leaving the rest to ride to thurs when i sold another 1/3 thurs at 57.5c . the rest I will wait & see .

     above -- Yoma old chart dated 25 sept with "as is" pumping trajectory

above : Yoma chart today fri

Other Short-term peaks :  Interra , Suntec

Entrapment at the toxic bottom ? :  Oceanus 

There being not many bottoms left around  to pick in this QE3 environment , my stock scans turned to scrapping the bottom of the SGX barrel , the most toxic of toxic pennies that have not yet rallied. These pennies, mostly 'S' chips or 'S-like' chips ,  had suffered many a bad reputation in the past for destroying shareholder value with company management siphoning off company assets into private pockets with such religious fanatical  zeal ,  that many fundamental analysts with a reputation to protect are afraid to cover them ,   leaving the cheerleading job to  selected "technical analysts"  usually engaged on contract basis  by stock operators to guide the public to buy and sell at precisely the wrong time.. in other words, to shepherd the public into the operator's slaughter house. 

Now , it so happens on wed 3 oct , 20 mins before market close , DJ News wire threw the restless public  a little bone to chew ( maybe from the Oceanus operator, maybe not  )   - a technical analysis report from a local broking house ( I  here replace name of the broking house  with xxx brokerage  in order not to insinuate anyone )  tipping for a buy on Oceanus with target 7c.

I reproduce that report here :
DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07 Target - xxx brokerage 03 Oct 2012 16:41
0841 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Charts tip Oceanus (579.SG) as a Technical Buy with S$0.07 target, xxx brokerage technical analysis says. "The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX. (

I have no clue on what Oceanus does - and whether its a good company with good governance or a typical toxic S-chip company or a hybrid somewhere inbetween   ..and I don't really care .

Curiousity tickles the cat, so a little check into Oceanus website  told me that it deals with farming & distribution of abalone and  other sea creatures eg. sea cucumber , lobster ,crayfish as well.  They even opened ah yat seafood restaurant outlets.

Further checks on the internet told me this company can destroy shareholder value  through  impairment of assets, like declaring its abalone crop compromised by some disease  or some environmental hazards.

Most auditors are not trained to tell a healthy live abalone from a sick one, or a plastic one , let alone in murky bubbly waters of an abalone farm .  so this type of business could potentially be an easy platform for fishing in troubled waters -   
混水摸() .  

the famous cases of sinoforest, guangzhou industrial forestry biotech readily spring to mind where their major core bio-assets are vaporware - can be made to appear or disappear at the snap of the CEO's fingers, depending on status of money transfer from your account to their accounts.  

From the share price performance in the last 3 years ( dropping from 47c to 5c now ) , oceanus abalone must never have felt sicker     ..of late,  I  thought that maybe this year,  just maybe , (  not that I know anything about oceanus or the abalone business or ever having eaten one before )  that they might just want to declare a healthy, bumper abalone crop just to pump the share price in this favorable QE3 that some directors can unload their shares .. any pumping story to suck in the public will do -- myanmese abalones , angry abalones , iCloud abalones, android abalones, organic genetically modified abalones - whatever.

anyway  I checked  on insider trades in oceanus , there was an open market sales by one director Yu de hua of 14,549,000 shares at 5c-5.1c  from 7 to 27 sept . and there was a business dispute between Yu dehua and Dr Ng cher chew resulting in transfer of 446,317,492  shares from Dr Ng to Yu Dehua who appears to be in a dumping mood  , after being removed from his CEO post recently  - i don't know what to make of all these 'insider trades' & 'disputes' but i wouldn't want to get in the way of   share dumping  by an ex- ceo who knows better than anyone else  the true worth of  his ex-company .

I don't know if this is just coincidence or orchestrated , just as  Oceanus appeared in the top volume chart  on wed , the xxx broker report was released by DJ news wire just 20 mins into market close with a 7c target inducing the public to buy .

the following thurs morning ,  Oceanus appeared in top vol chart again sucking in punters in the first hour only to find strong unloading by operator throughout the day & also through  friday with sizeable buy queues of 10,000 lots and many 'buys' of 300 lots each.
On fri/sat /sunday , feeling bad about Oceanus & how some of my readers could have bought oceanus based on the xxx broker report posted  , I sent out  the following warning note to  readers who emailed me  previously   :

" i think oceanus operator is probably trying to entrap the public by creating false activity ( appearing in top vol chart since wed)  and through timely release of  technical analysis reports    to induce public to buy oceanus  at 5.1-5.3  thinking it will go 7c  then flush the stock down to 4.5c next week to cause a force-sell or cut  loss from the public so that the operator can cover his shorts  at 4.5-4.7.  pse do not share this info with anyone else  as this is just only my half-baked private speculation opinion ...disclaimer applies.. I know nothing about oceanus' business  or the intentions of their operators or even if they exist at all -  so they could be a figment of my bad imagination  ".

POST-MORTEM ANALYSIS  :  what happens  to market after above post  dated 7 oct  

below is  evaluation of clockwork precision  : comparision of "as is"  predicted trajectory of  recent charts with realization in  latest charts  as events unfold after 7 oct 

update on oceanus -- 10 oct 2012
comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is"  trajectory( top)  with latest chart 10 oct ( bottom) ..

Skyone - comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is" trajectory( top chart )  and new chart 10 oct 2012 ( bottom )  : 

Yoma - compare top chart prediction of a peak   5 oct  vs bottom  chart  12 oct realisation 

Interra - comparing top chart 5 oct prediction of a peak   vs  bottom chart realization  12 oct 

STi - compare top chart from  19 sept post="global QE unlimited -last tango in pennies  ( click here for post )    with "as is " trajectory  vs  today's chart ( bottom )