STi in wake of French/Greek revolt & Two charts from the Edge magazine : Yoma & Kepcorp

Over the weekend , I flipped through the latest edition of The Edge magazine ( for week may 7 -may13) and saw a chart analysis on Yoma by The Edge's technical analyst   who said  she had a confirmation of  a topping formation in Yoma and she expected Yoma , if it breaks down from 50c , ( which happened yesterday, Monday 7 may  )  to hit 27c after some  upward reactions at 40c, I reproduce her analysis here :

Recalling my 10 April post on "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment? "   , I had already expected Yoma 's breakdown  when it was still trading at 60-63c  ( see last post " Yoma in distribution? "    ) and to have a fall with weak upward reactions  or corrections at 50c, 46c, 42.5c,  36c and 29.5c like in chart below .

We shall watch with keen interest which  way or trajectory the Yoma operator is going to operate his stock - somewhere in between the Edge's 27c target trajectory and mine or something totally out of whack from  our both of our  expectations in which case we will have to adjust our  expectation trajectory accordingly. I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely ...  -- see below STi trajectory.


I also saw from the previous week's Edge magazine ( for  week of  april 23-29),   a chart analysis of Kepcorp when Kepcorp was trading at $11.55 . I also reproduce their analysis here, which seems to me somewhat overbullish at that moment ( see my analysis in 25 april  post  and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo 
where I mentioned insiders and smart money are selling like no tomorrow ( and to that effect , I  showed a contra statement of my dumping with Kepcorp@11.62   ) while the public and mainstream technical analysis or indicators are sucked into the  ecstasy and euphoria  over the  USD 4 bn contract  news,  strongly tempting technical analysts to  upgrade their 'technical' targets to $12 or more,  like below )

In the same issue I saw a more "muted" or balanced article on Kepcorp " Orders boom for Kepcorp but margins and upside muted " by Kang Wan Chern , I reproduce part of the article here, which somewhat corresponds more to my sombre or bearish  view at that time ( see my analysis in 25 april  post     and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo)   

In this mini crash following last weekend's French/Greek elections calling for more stimulus and less austerity, I expect Kepcorp to hit 10.40 after some upward reaction or corrections at 10.65 .  What happens after 10.40 is subject to general market conditions which I expect to be quite bad so I wouldn't be surprised if it hits below $10, if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. see updated STi & kepcorp trajectory below 


 In the wake of the french/ greek revolt against german austerity  and if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. the STi may   take a slow and bumpy fall to 2833 ( updated to 2800 on 9 may ) with upward reactions at 2908 ,2879, 2857 .  The trajectory is not meant for trading the STi , they are used for aiding the trading of stocks & warrants ...This chart will be pasted inside STi roadmap 'tab' for short-term reference.

  **************************************************************


new STi down trajectory updated 9 may.. the trajectory is not meant for trading the STi , they are used for aiding the trading of stocks & warrants -see STi roadmap tab 

*********************************************************


updated kepcorp chart 11 may 2012

Yoma in distribution ? - small quick punt for a small transient bounce

4 posts or 16 days ago, dated 10 April entitled "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment?"  , when Yoma was galloping on a tear to new historical highs of  62-63c, I  dumped my Yoma ,  explaining that the set-up for dumping Yoma was almost perfect given the "positive " news flow and the "bullish" technicals, all carefully orchestrated or calibrated  to suck the public into buying  Yoma shares to support a good exit price for the Yoma operator to distribute or dump his shares - of course that was just my private hypothesis  to guide my trading, not yours and  I could be wrong in my hypothesis.

True to form, for the right or wrong assumptions/hypothesis, Yoma after hovering for 1.5 weeks of "distribution" between 60-63c( see chart below ) , gave way to a precipitous  fall to 50.5c in the last few days. 

Yesterday, I saw that the Yoma plunge had been quite ferocious for past 3 days  and then brought down to a reasonable support or demand  level .. I half expected the operator to find this level of 50c  sweet enough  to take  or mark Yoma up a bit to facilitate further future dumping  but was unwittingly distracted into punting what turns out to be a  very weak Kepcorp bounce which to me portends of more bearish moves to come  -see previous post : Kepcorp - a small punt for a v small bounce 

This morning , i found it not too late, an opportune moment to partake in that  "half " expected "mark-up" by the Yoma operator   ... so i decided to take a chance to enter , considering that the risk -reward is in my favor. 

However, being a total outsider , I was not very sure of the operator's  exact true intentions for the medium term so I decided to only do a small quick intraday punt , in at 52c and out at 57c at which price and time I felt  the price "mark up"    has somewhat run out of steam for bearish reasons that I am at no liberty to discuss here or now  but which we shall see being played out in next few weeks.  

Side note:  I saw that the price action  on Kepcorp today was not to my expectations and realised I had made an error of judgement in not taking the dividend  effect into account  ,  so I  dumped my kepcorp wrts bought yesterday ,  at 13.5c which is  0.1c above my buy price, just enough to pay for the brokerage fees.. feeling lucky to get out alive on this one. 

Kepcorp - a small punt for a very small bounce

 2 posts ago( Kepcorp gets bog mojo from Brasil) ,    I dumped my Kepcorp wrts immediately on waking up to good news that Kepcorp  had received its biggest oil rig contract to date...

While mainstream technical analysts are rushing to upgrade their technical targets on Kepcorp to >$12+ following this news , I dumped my kepcorp.. see below for an example of such an upgrade from a local technical analyst who apparently got sucked into the euphoria in his technical analysis  :

For those who emailed me for the reasons why I dumped immediately upon such good news , I gave a few : 

Question 5: why did I choose to dump as soon as I woke up to the news of the deal while mainstream media technical analysts are rushing to  upgrade their  technical targets for kepcorp to  > $12++. following  this news  ?

Ans:  I assume rightly or wrongly that many insiders have collected a lot of kepcorp stock on credit in anticipation of this very moment of announcement .  They have to dump on the news because (i) they are on credit and have no reason to hold forever (ii) maybe  they do not expect any more good deals of such size to be announced anytime soon ..(iii)  those outsiders who bought on contra just before the deal announcement ( like me) and those outsiders who bought on contra on the day after the announcement will have to dump when  forced selling day comes. (iv) the dow can turn awry anytime , in fact I expected the dow to turn bad that very same Friday nite  , which it did down 1% so what is the point of holding on esp over a weekend   (v) lastly , kepcorp has hit close to my technical target which is $11.66 from  which i expect a  a strong downward reaction or fall .

True  to form , Kepcorp went up slightly ( 4c up) to 11.68 for 1 day after I dumped before it plunged to a low of 11.05 today  ( see chart below)  not withstanding a tax-exempt dividend of 26c awarded yesterday nite .

Today I saw that Kepcorp had plunged ferociously  "enough" for the moment  and it was time for a small bounce ( strictly yesterday was a much better entry with the 26c dividend , so I am being late here in my entry today )   so  anyway I accumulated 300 Kepcorp wrts for an average price of 13.4c, which happens to be exactly the average price of the 700 lots I bought just hours before the announcement of the super deal 10 trading  days ago and subsequently sold for 16c the very next morning for a profit of $18k  ( see last post for contra statement )  . 

If I had fallen in love with Kepcorp over that superdeal news and held on to my wrts for 10 trading days til now  - it would be all for nought( ie. 13.4c stays 13.4c over 10 trading days as if the big oil rig contract announcement and 26c dividend didn't exist) .

Am I expecting another gap up tomorrow to 16.8c like that day of the superdeal ? No,  I expect the US markets to go up  slightly tonite on yet another blow out quarter from Apple ( announced last nite after US market close ) so that gave me an idea or motivation to punt for  a very small bounce tomorrow to earn some shopping money  just enough to buy an ipad3 or two   . 

Tomorrow ,  I will dump two thirds of my wrts as soon as Kepcorp hits 11.20-25 and one third  at 11.35 if it comes my way. 

Of course if   Kepcorp price action over next few days  does not conform to what I expected, I will react accordingly including cut-loss if necessary.

Contra statement appendum to previous post

This contra statement is appendum to last post(see or click right ) : Kepcorp gets big mojo from Brasil - spending the night with 750 lots of kepcorp wrts 

Kepcorp gets big mojo from Brasil - spending one night with 750 lots of kepcorp warrants

Today, Kepcorp announced what is probably the biggest oil rig deal clinched in her corporate history .. a USD 4.12bn letter of intent to build 5 semi-sub oil rigs for Sete Brasil , owned by  Brazil's national oil company- PetroBras..


For some months I have been tracking the chart of Kepcorp  , probably the bluest of Singapore blue chips. 
Observant readers of my past trades would have noticed i had always kept  2 Kepcorp wrts on my watch list.  


In a post dated 6 Mar , I noted that Kepcorp had responded to my short term peak of $11.10 and crashed down 50c from there. I reproduce the old kepcorp  chart with its old annotations in that post here. 



In the same post , I also noted that her little twin sister company Sembmarine had responded to another of my short term peak of $5.40 , overshot by 6c and then crashed down,  coincidentally also by 50c  right after an announcement that Temasek holdings is trimming a 3% stake in sembmar. I also reproduce the old sembmar chart with its old annotations in that post here. 



Then came last Friday and this Monday , Kepcorp made its first attempts to cross $11.10 but failed towards market close  .( see kepcorp chart below)  


On Tuesday , kepcorp finally crossed the $11.10 barrier towards the closing minutes of trade to close at $11.14 and I took notice.


Now, on hindsight with this USD4bn deal , I suppose some kepcorp operator or insider must have got wind of the impending announcement of the deal and decided to buy at all costs, nevermind one or two days too early and nevermind if his buying towards close caused a technical false breakout ahead of a 200 pt Dow crash and nevermind if what he is doing complies with MAS rules of a transparent market and level playing field.


Probably the insiders are rodeo cowboys from Brasil and they didn't know what MAS stands for and didn't care.


I was not tempted to enter on tues despite noticing the breakout in the closing minutes.( email me for the reasons)  This is despite the STi demonstrating much gung-ho strength all day to close at day high for a gain of almost 1% on tues. 


True enough , that tues nite the Dow came crashing down 200+ points .


Kepcorp's reaction on the next day to the 200 pt Dow crash  was very interesting.... 


 (  email me for what i observed. )


Now if you have not seen "relative strength" in action before , this is the USD 4bn poster moment to watch. It tells you something big & positive  is about to happen with the stock but exactly what that might be, I haven't had the slightest clue and I didn't care.

On Wed nite, the Dow rebounded about 1%. 


The very next day, in the morning I did not participate in Kepcorp partly because I had some chores to attend to .. and partly because I was distracted by some shorting opportunity on yoma at the open at 63c and covering back at 60c. see prev post on dumping yoma 

Kepcorp opened at $11.09 and stayed below $11.12 all morning . By mid afternoon , probably with some encouragement from china ( up >2%)  and HK,  it started to show signs of breaking out again but was blocked by one big sell queue block of about 340 lots  at $11.20...


While waiting for this big block to clear,   I realised something .. ( email me for what it is)   So without hesitation,  before any breakout north of this $11.20 block , I quickly accumulated about 300 lots of   "in-the-money" Kepcorp MBeCW120702 wrts at about 13.1-13.2c from 1430hrs - 1500 hrs ( see below order book) .

At 15:18:04 , one kepcorp operator  found the time ripe to snap up the 340 lots at $11.20 on the sell queue. 


What motivated him to do it ? - i don't know ..email me for some ventured guesses. .

At any rate, whatever the reasons, immediately once the big block was cleared , without the slightest inkling of the deal, I averaged up and bought another 300 lots at 13.3c -13.4c.  and towards the close, I averaged up further and bought another 100 lots at 13.9c making a total of 700 lots at avg price of 13.4c .( see above order book and below trade summary  )

Towards the close,  I noticed the other kepcorp wrt on my watchlist , kepcorp  BPeCW120703  also exhibited some participation , this one had an "out-of-the-money" strike price but being very late into the game for this wrt  ,  I took only100 lots at 11.1c .


But soon after my purchase , I noticed the wrt was behaving a bit erratically against the underlying price change .  Immediately I cut loose 50 lots at the same price that I bought. True enough the very next day , the bid-ask spread of this wrt widened from 0.1c to 0.2c .


Today due to some drowsy flu medicine I took last nite, I woke up late at about 11am , blissfully unaware of any kepcorp news .  When i switched on my pc screen, I was pleasantly surprised to find that Kepcorp had gap up to $11.64 soon after open , up a whopping 40c. The overnite Dow had also rallied >1%. 


 A quick and dirty calculation tells me my kepcorp wrts should translate to a gain of 2.8c from 13.9c close yesterday which it did soon after open to 16.8c..( see day high of wrt  in third item of watchlist below ),  


Upon further checks , I realised kepcorp had announced the deal last nite .. if only i had known ..i would have woken up early to dump,  flu or no flu.. 


At any rate ,  I dumped my kepcorp wrts in double quick time after reading the news,  at a respectable price making some 19% return on my capital in just one nite. It could have been more at 30% return , but then sleep is just as important.

Why did I dumped as soon as i woke up to the news ? email me for the reasons. 


To that effect , in my dumping frenzy,  I accidentally shorted 300 lots of the kepcorp BP wrts  at 13.7c only to cover back after a drop of only  0.2c.( see above trade summary on the right column intraday close P/L )  It could have been more if I had waited longer ( it eventually closed at 13.1c , see second item in above watchlist ) but then it was lunch time and I didn't like the erratic widening in bid-ask spread of this wrt.


At the same time , while dumping kepcorp, i noticed little twin sister sembmarine today is climbing up more than kepcorp - percentage wise,  despite no announcement from sembmarine. (see percentage gain from kepcorp 2% vs sembmar 2.7% in above watchlist at market close )  


Nonetheless towards close the sembmar rally also lost some steam and fell back without breaking my $5.40 barrier. 

Are there some expectations from sembmar operators of an impending announcement of similar magnitude from sembmar ( some analysts were expecting some drillships from Sete Brasil )  like kepcorp's ( 5 semi-sub oil rigs ) or  is it just pure mimicry / sympathetic move in action ?


This , we will find out hopefully by next week. 


 I am not too hopeful of any big deal announcement from sembmar anytime early next week (   email me for the reasons ..) but i may be wrong ...so let's watch.... like a hawk on its prey and react accordingly .


*for answers to queries above, please email to bille33333@gmail.com   .. put email subject title as "Queries on post : Kepcorp gets big mojo from Brasil - request from xxx yyy "... insert your name: xxx and hp no: yyy  if you want into the subject title..  otherwise leave it as xxx yyy..  TQ.  


*******************************************************
contra statement appended 18 April 

Dumping Yoma -- the perfect ecstasy moment ?

In my last post dated 1 april , I mentioned the issue of dismounting from Yoma, having rided it for so long.( see 26 feb post :Yoma may rise to 52-54 after retrace to 38/39.)


  This morning presented an unique opportunity  for me to dump my wonder  penny stock called Yoma.


 For the first time in its history, Yoma was featured in the cover story of the Edge  magazine, over the weekend, with the economic liberalisation and lifting of sanctions on Mynamar as the exciting  backdrop . Yoma was seen or heralded as the " maverick" , " Rising star of Mynamar "  , the proxy gateway to the "last frontier" of growth  for local players...


 Add to that , the public was waiting with abated breath the announcement of sgx approval of Yoma rights issue which they hope to participate.  Thus , newsflow-wise ,   the public was maximally bullish over this stock.


If I were  the Yoma  operator or retail punter , I could not find a better time to distribute or dump my shares now or over next few days .

Technically, I could not find a better moment to dump either. Yesterday 
we had Yoma breaking previous  historical high of  57.5c to close at day high of 60c. Then this morning Yoma opened gap up to 62c. 


Thus we have the perfect  "ecstasy" moment for this stock as it would have activated the "buy" signals of many trading systems that are used in the local market that rely on buying on breakouts of  historical or recent highs , or bullish crossing/sloping of moving averages , MACD, stochastic, RSI , ADX or whatever "proprietary"  single mom or double pop indicator one could find in the education market leading the public to jump onboard or add more this morning.


Many trading systems that rely on candlestick pattern recoginition would have activated a buy signal after yesterday market close given the long green candle yesterday leading the public to buy this morning acting on that "super-bullish" candlestick pattern detection.


Given all these circumstances, the set-up for dumping Yoma was almost perfect. Add to that I had expected the Dow to perform badly tonite, so i dumped my remaining Yoma holdings, all 600 lots, soon after open at 61c.


However I may get in later if Yoma corrects to some reasonable level ( maybe at 50c punt for a small transient bounce ? )  ..


** Disclaimer --   this are just my private observations or hypothesis to guide my trading , not yours...... and I could be wrong  in my hypothesis ...   so read at your own risks.

Riding & dismounting my two horses - Yoma and Ezion

In my 26 Feb post ,  when Yoma was trading at about 42-45c,  i suggested that Yoma might be ripe for accumulation after some retrace first ,  maybe to recent lows of 38/39c ( which it did retrace to after 7 days ) with potential for rally to 51-54c.  Last Friday we actually hit 51.5c day high but after a one month wait.  

 But I have a confession to make  ,, after Yoma broke out of 44c, I wrote in a 15 Mar post -"Yoma finally breaks out"  that I will dump two thirds of my holdings at 47-48c because I had expected a downward reaction there. leaving one third for ride to 52-54c.  

 ..for how long , I don't have a clue but in the process of dumping frenzy , I dumped almost all,  about three quarters of my Yoma holdings as I do not want to sit through the corrective reactions which can be psychologically upsetting and affect my deployment of capital into other more nascent breakouts.. for which later Ezion turned out to be one of them ( see last post " Ezion breaks out "  ) .

On friday morning I had an inkling  the Dow is going to be good on friday nite ( this was borne out later by Friday's Dow which went up 66 pts ) , ..... that should set us up for a good opening on following  Monday morning .

So I asked myself  on friday morning - what stocks should be ripe for a breakout to exploit a good Monday opening ?  Yoma readily comes to mind as it suffered a false break south to 46c the previous day... 

I also decided not to dump two thirds of my Ezion though it hit my intermediate target of 99c -$1 ( see last post trading plan - "Ezion breaks out" ) as I wanted to exploit the good Monday opening to dump.

When Yoma passed 47c with strong momentum on Friday morning  , I quickly accumulated 600 lots of Yoma at average price of 47.5 , about the same avg price I dumped my Yoma the last time.


Much as i hated the exhorbitant broker fees of local brokerages,  I do not mind suffering the extra brokerage fees as a result of trading in and out of critical price levels because I wanted to deploy my capital efficiently but more importantly I do not like to suffer reactions.


True to form , Yoma surged to 51c  three hours after I got onboard . 

Now what is the exit strategy for Monday's action   ?   I will dump three quarters of my Ezion at about 99c-$1 as originally planned , hoping to ride the remainder to 1.07/1.09 and dump two thirds of my Yoma at 53-55c. I may buy back some Yoma later for the rights for which i do not  yet know the ex-date. 

Of course the price action on Monday may prove my tape reading is all wrong and I shall react accordingly.

Ezion breaks out -- going for $1.08/9 or stopped in its tracks by a double top at 98/99c ?

Today was an eventful day for stocks after many false breaks in recent past where stocks often break out on relatively high volume for only one day , then only to see its price fall back below breakout price over subsequent T+x followup  periods  , forcing many contra players or weak holders to cut losses. Alas , such is the convoluted process of accumulation.
  

Today was T+5 for the Ezion breakout last Tues,  there was supposed to be dumping by contra players which caused subdued price action in the morning
.

By 2pm , most contra players have already dumped or rolled-over , supply was depleted and one Ezion operator decided it is time for a breakout by whacking 767 lots at 93c  @ 1430 hrs.. This was followed up by a flurry of activity where we see > 1k lots buys at ever higher and higher prices all the way to 97c.

 I had been a follower of Ezion since a few weeks ago ( see 8 mar post predicting a short term target of 94c when it should be 92c for contra play, anyway 94c was subsequently fulfilled after a gruelling  8 day wait to  20 mar only to see it fall back later to 91c  ) .

 I sensed from Ezion price action in past 2 weeks that it had relative strength despite its "sister" company Ezra plunging ahead of and after  a share placement .

 So given the tailwind provided by the Bernanke speech last nite and the STi road map i had and my belief we're due for a break beyond 3030 in the Sti , I thought it was not too late to partake in a  Ezion move even after the Dow had risen 140 pts last nite.

Add to that, yesterday's Ezion move was down which was good, to scare the wits out of contra players who bought high earlier .

 So in the morning  i accumulated 250 lots at 92.5c in anticipation of a breakout , probably buying from contra players who bought at 94c last tues/wed.

 My prayers were answered by 1430 hrs when one brave Ezion operator whacked  767 lots at 93c to cause an actual  breakout.  Upon which i immediately follow-up with another 250 lots at 93.5c to make up a total of 500 lots at average price of  93c. There was no looking back til it hit 98c upon which we see some downward reaction. 
  

Where would Ezion go tomorrow or over the next few days ?  Will it hit 98-99c and fall or proceed to go higher to $1 + ?  

If Ezion hits 99c - $1 tomorrow or day after or after , I will dump two thirds of what i bought. I will keep the rest to ride til $1.08-$1.10..

Of course if the price action over next few days proves that my tape reading is all wrong , i will react accordingly ..

 

Precision and prescience - Mr Bernanke "responded" in less than 24 hours to our technical predictions and the Dow shoots up more than 1% ...

Less than 24 hours after we predicted  the end of a short-term correction in a generally down market ( see last post ) ,  Bernanke makes a speech and the Dow shoots up more than 1.2% and Nasdaq up >1.8%  ... 

Thank you Mr Bernanke for "responding"  in such timely fashion to our technical predictions ...  and thank you readers for your generous compliments in the last post comments section.

STi could have finished its current little correction from old resistance 3030 tomorrow and may proceed to 3050-63 relatively unhindered. Watch Sembmarine , Ezion etc

Yoma finally breaks out !

2 posts ago  , i posed the question - To punt or not to punt Yoma given trade restrictions on Yoma imposed at some brokerages & the rather unflattering commentary on Yoma from a certain website. 

This afternoon  while sipping coffee with my friend in a coffeeshop near my home,  I got my answer from a sms alert that told me Yoma had just breached 44c. Immediately i bade my friend goodbye and rushed home ,  in time to whack 500 lots at 44.5c. Then as Yomas rises, i pyramid up a  smaller amount at 45c then an even smaller amount at 45.5c or day high and closing price for a total of 800 lots at an average price of 44.7c for the day ..

While still holding a small amount of Yoma bought at 38/39c  in the recent correction as my pyramid base   ,  why am I buying more Yoma  at  ever higher prices despite the widespread convincing misgivings about this stock's fundamentals from foreign  websites and local brokerages alike ?

 The answer lies in the price action AND my tradeplan posted 8 Mar  
which says if Yoma breaks 44c barrier , it should go higher  ..


Add to this , i believe in my STi roadmap ( see last post or  STi roadmap tab above -)  which says the STi rally in the very short term should be smooth going until at least 3050-65 ,, so the tailwind for a successful Yoma price pumping operation is there ..  

Tomorrow , I shall see where Yoma would go.  I would expect it to go to 47-48c at least.  So in the morning soon after open, I would dump two thirds of my holding at these prices  if  it goes my way,, 
.
I shall leave the rest to ride the price pump, to see if it would go to 52c-54c  which was my original defy-the-market target which i posted on 26 feb when the market was in the midst of a correction.  


Of course tomorrow's price action could prove that my tape reading is all wrong and i shall react accordingly when it does not go my way..

STi updated roadmap - Breakout ! STi should rally to our next easy target of 3050 pause then 3065 then small correction then 3130 then bigger correction . Final target is 3160-3200 then a big big correction. See STi roadmap "tab" above for archive of old roadmaps..

We here update the STi road map or big picture trajectory which will be kept inside the STi roadmap archive  tab above which also keeps a record of previous roadmaps for future reference.

Refer to older post  in feb post    and even older one in 10 jan  for where we came from in terms of STi trajectory prediction.

Yoma - to punt or not to punt ?

Over the weekend , i came across some commentary on Yoma dated 13 Feb 2012   at  http://www.yeocheowtong.com/MasterSpy.html , I reproduce them here for those who are interested to punt Yoma :

 from a comment by "Jim" to JohnHarding.com on Feb. 13, 2012

Recently, over the past weeks, the shares of Yoma has shot up tremendously at SGX from S$0.06 to S$0.47 as at close of today [Feb. 13, 2012]. In a spate of what I would term as calculated moves they timed their release of a series of news that offer investors no concrete and tangible asset value but "promises" of anticipated future value because its business potential in Myanmar is riding on the back of a consultant group SPA (controlled by Serge Pun) which had "land development rights" to build a township in Myanmar comprising of commercial, industrial and residential units (reported to be 9,000 units).
Today, the release more info that Yoma is to buy over 70 % of the rights to develop this Star City (name of project) from SPA for S$91 million and is calling for a 4 for 5 rights issue at S$0.24 per rights. It looked to me like they are manipulating the share for it to shoot up so high in order for them to call for a rights issue as, otherwise, at its previous level of S$0.06 - S$0.08. What kind of rights can they hope to entice investors?
The point is Serge Pun doesn't have to fork out any cash for the rights because the money coming from the proceeds of the rights (S$91 million) is going into his pocket. All he did was acquire the LDR by rubbing shoulders with the Myanmar generals and a little of paper work involving two companies controlled by him issuing a piece of paper and money is generated which ultimately goes into his pocket, while at the same time his shareholding in Yoma gets a boost in capital value.
Because of Serge Pun's association with the Singapore government previously, I suspect either GIC or Temasek Holding are the ones pushing the shares up through a maze of third party proxies.
The shares of Yoma continue to be heavily bought by certain parties most probably acting in concert, despite the fact that there have been many warnings that it is purely a speculative play and also despite the fact that several stock broking houses have been imposing restrictions on investors buying the shares, such as imposing a condition of placing the equivalent of the cash value first into the stockbroker on a cash on purchase basis, while others imposing a maximum of S$25,000 per transaction per day on the counter for each individual investor (as I was told).
Something is not right with this counter. Serge Pun appears to me to be a "dodgy" character despite all the write ups about him, with most of the accolades coming from his home based Myanmar's journalists.

No market call for today or tonite .. US jobs data tonite ..

Today we receive a flood of fundamental good news "responding" to our technical bullish calls of last 2 days : China inflation cooling , Greece closing debt swap deal, good US jobs data tonite ..

Only 2 days ago, the financial media & analysts were "reacting"  to the consecutive days of falls in STi / Dow with  hindsight bearish calls , citing potential disorderly Greek default, China hard landing etc .. and wildly projecting the STI to go to 2800 in this correction. 

STi may close strong today .. Wall St may continue rally tonite ,,, Watch Ezion .. short -term target 92/ 94c.

Errata : Yoma should reach easy short-term target of 49-50c  if  it breaks 44c barrier ..  Higher targets are possible but we cross the bridge when we come to it.

STi - to bounce at 2905-2910 .. US market may be up tonite. Watch Yoma.

STI should open gap down to around 2905-10 and trend higher as we think the US markets have corrected enough in the short term and should go up tonight.   Watch Yoma .. it may have corrected enough ...maintain target 51-4c.

STi sinks 100 pts since hitting our target of 3030 - Sembmar and Kepcorp hit our short-term targets exactly last fri and turned south today ... Temasek announces today it trims a 3% stake in Sembmar @5.25 - another example of fundamental events responding to our technical predictions.

STi sinks 100 pts since hitting our target of  3030 ...  Sembmar and Kepcorp hit our short-term targets exactly last fri and turned south today ... Temasek announces today it trims a 3% stake in Sembmar @5.25 - another example of fundamental events responding to our technical predictions on 10 feb  post .

Yoma may rise to 51-54 c over next few days/weeks after some retrace first to recent lows ( maybe to 38-39c ) as general market sentiment is unlikely to be good on Monday , Tues .. let's watch ..

Predicted turn of STi @ 3020-30 realised by announcement of Greek rescue deal

- It turns out that the STi hitting our predicted short-term market peak levels ( see last post ) coincided exactly with the announcement of the second Greek rescue package right after which we immediately see a correction - which goes some way to show that fundamental events sycnhronise themselves to critical price levels in charts or charts very often anticipate fundamental events( minus black swans ) .

                                                                                                                                                                                                   
STI should consolidate or correct for quite a while below this level ( given strong supply  )  and then continue its bumpy climb towards our final target 3160-90  , with some hiccups like this one  along the way ... see previous post  http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2012/02/updated-sti-upswing-target-chart.html
(All bets for further rallies are off if Israel bombs Iranian  nuclear facilities )

Short term peaks : STi @ 3020-30 , kepcorp @11.10 , sembmar @5.40, DBS @$14.2- let's watch ....

Yoma's sharp crash down from the stratosphere suddenly reminds over-exuberant penny players they could soon be on the receiving end of many a penny-style pump-n-dump operation - so other pennies may follow suit.

Dyna-mac - target 58/59c . Yoma breaks historical high for the stratosphere. watch Genting SP - poised for breakout soon - target 1.73 / 1.85 - results on 22 Feb 2012 - but buyers beware - earnings may yet disappoint again.

updated STi upswing target chart : final tgt is 3160/75 but small downward reactions at 3030 , 3060, 3130 along the way ...

see   previous post  http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2012/01/breakout-kepcorp-target-1030-1070.html

Just when i thought the shallower-than-expected correction is over , the STI opened high in the morning following overnite dow and then towards the close plunged towards reasonable correction levels for some stocks .. eg my expected correction levels for kepcorp is 10.40-45 ..