Thursday, 27 September 2012

Myanmese twin pumps : Yoma & Interra ( with later updates on GMG, Midas , Skyone appended )

In the last post ( titled "short-term peaks and Myanmese pumps " -click here )  , I predicted a weak beginning for  this week , expecting it to last thru Monday, Tues and maybe Wed   .  So it is perhaps a good time to cover all your shorts by Wed close or thurs open, no matter what target prices people give you. 

Last nite as Nymex sweet crude oil plunged to $89  and reversed to close slightly above $89.90 I realised we had found a nice bottom for oil from which I expect a nice bounce never mind the riots in Spain/Greece or the hard-landing in china or the water canon show at Diaoyu islands.  Good news should await us tonite -maybe Spain will pass their austerity budget tonite to satisy the Germans or   maybe good unemployment claims or pending home sales data tonite from the US, whatever these data mean. 

As the Dow futures dropped to 13333 - a nice number , I saw that the Dow has found a corresponding nice bottom but not as nice as oil , & albeit a very temporary one too  . So tonite the Dow  should  bounce ..nevermind a weak one .. & never mind what friday or next week will bring.

The Nikkei futures had hit a nice bottom as well , 8855- another nice number.

I also noticed that Gold has completed its reaction to 1738, a lucky number , readying for a bounce.

 which is good enough window for our Myanmese twins , Yoma and Interra to pursue their pumping operation. and maybe also their long suffering brethens like Midas and GMG as well , maybe add Ramba also .( see below update at the bottom   )

 As stated in last post, I bought my Yoma when it completed its reaction at 42-43c and drew some trajectory for the Yoma pumping operation.. I reproduce them here  "as is " for comparison with today's chart .
Tues' 25sept Yoma chart with "as is" pumping trajectory from wild guessing -see last post

                                                Today's Yoma chart

                   Yoma trades on Tues 25sept when it hit reaction floor- see last post 

Tues' Interra chart with pumping trajectory from wild guessing- see last post

Modified disclaimer from last post : Interra : Pre-pumping for rights share trading commencement 2 oct  ?  Interra has broken  recent historic high of  38c due to window dressing & lack of public shares  for now but  come 2 Oct , there will be a flood of Interra rights shares from the public for dumping . Given that the rights costs only 15c to subscribe , maybe 41-43c is more than enough pumping for the operator who has already done his job & collected his paycheck on 22 Sept.. but of course these  public are a estastic public having made a tidy profit , so the dumping or profit-taking may not be that severe , if i were the operator , I will jack up the price 1st Oct & then right after  2 Oct open to  make the  estastic public feel that there is even more up room to go, and so to hold tight to their rightshares but there is always public & some big boys who borrowed money to subscribe to the rights so they will eventually dump over next few days after 2 oct but since people are making almost 30c profit for every 15c they borrow , all they need to do to repay  is sell one  third their rightshares or 1/9 of existing capitalization if all rights shares were financed by loan which is insignificant what more with Uncle Ben willing to lend you money for free for the next 2 years... at any rate , the best strategy is to forget "fundamentals"  and focus on the technicals or price action to look for sell signals  - just my 2c worth
Update on GMG --  30 sept Sun  :

old GMG chart above with old pumping trajectory ( see 19 sept post - click here)

Midas pumping trajectory updated 1 oct 2012 - see comments section Breaking out :Skyone( updated 7 oct ) 

Monday, 24 September 2012

Short term peaks & Myanmese pumps ? : China Minzhong ( & appended on 25 sept : Ezion , Noble, Yoma, Interra )

I  reproduce here a excerpt from Dow Jones News wire on Maybank-KE analyst views on China Minzhong : 

DJ MARKET TALK: Minzhong Profits From China Food Inflation-Maybank-KE

19 Sep 2012 14:53
DJ MARKET TALK: Minzhong Profits From China Food Inflation-Maybank-KE
0653 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Investors may be rushing into Chinese upstream food companies, such as China Minzhong (K2N.SG), Sino Grandness (JS5.SG) and People's Food (P05.SG), due to concerns over China's food inflation, Maybank-Kim Eng says. Minzhong is a direct beneficiary of the recent rise in China's fresh vegetable prices, up 24% on-year in August, it says. Minzhong gets 38% of its revenue from cultivation, mainly serving the domestic market, and directly benefiting from vegetable price surges, while 62% of revenue is from the mid-stream processing business, with the company able to pass part of the cost pressure to downstream customers, it says. "If food inflation in China remains high, there is a high chance that the management's revenue target (of 15% growth) could be surpassed." Maybank-KE keeps a Buy call with S$1.16 target. The stock is up 2.6% at S$0.785, for an around 9% month-to-date gain. (

From the recent bullish views from the Maybank-KE analyst above giving a target price of  S$1.16 to whet the public appetite for fresh vegetables  , & given my very short term pullback view ( for beginning of week : Mon - tues & maybe wed   ) , a short-term bearish view that was appended yesterday  to the bottom of  last post ( click here)  ,  maybe it is about time to  take profits or short China Minzhong -  see below )-there may be some window dressing activities in this week so  disclaimer applies .. 


The section below  is appended 25 sept 2012


Ezion announces USD 201m 5yr rig-charter contract + $82m LOI  - time to abandon ship ? 

*DJ - 20 Sep 2012 08:15 Ezion Holdings Target Raised To S$1.66 From S$1.42 By Maybank-Kim Eng  
*DJ  - 18 Sep 2012 09:19  Ezion Holdings Started At Overweight, Target S$1.60 By JPMorgan
*DJ - 14 Sep 2012 11:38 Ezion Holdings Fair Value Raised To S$1.53 From S$1.20 By OCBC 

Given the  recent deluge of analyst upgrades on Ezion in anticipation of this contract announcement , maybe it is time to dump or short this stock ?

******  Post-mortem updated 26 sept  - today Ezion is up 6c  to 1.35- a historic high  , on hindsight , it was premature to call for a dump yesterday since we are now in window dressing week , Ezion was halted only yesterday morning and contract news has not yet made its way to mainstream press to the public ,  and  Ezion has been  the best performer in SGX for the past 1 year  hence one of  the best candidate for window dressing & last but not least more than anything else I have  yet  to see any evidence of unloading  *********  

Noble  - breaking down  (from prediction on 23 sept appended to bottom of previous post -click here )

Yoma  pump - absorption of final supply ? 

Yoma did not cross my 44c threshold until today .. As Yoma  hits floor of 42c on reaction downwave , 2 big whacks of Yoma at   42.5c x 2,074@ 9:40:27 and 43c x 2,727@ 9:41:09 sent Yoma into a buying frenzy & it did not look back since. It closed at 45c.

Interra : Pre-pumping for rights share trading commencement 2 oct  ? Forces favoring Interra this week are window dressing , Interra has broken  recent historic high of  38c , & lack of public shares  for now but  come 2 Oct , there will be a flood of Interra shares from the public for dumping in which case we can look for shorting opportunities. Given that the rights costs only 15c to subscribe , maybe 41-43c is more than enough pumping for the operator who has already done his job & collected his paycheck on 22 Sept. 

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Global QE Unlimited : last tango in pennies ? - GMG , Midas ( with Outlook for week ahead updated 23 sept at bottom of post )

Ever since  I urged  "Buy, buy, buy before QE3 announcement  3 posts ago (  "Ezion rally on ECB bond buying & QE3 hopes" -  click here to see last comment in that comments section  ) & 2 posts ago ( click here for : "front running & fading QE3... " ) , thanks to a stronger than expected QE3 announcement a few days later , most stock operators were caught by surprise by the aggressiveness of  Bernanke which then led to a big gap up in the STi  the very next morning after Bernanke announced QE3 unlimited .

A fierce rally ensued for many second  liners & pennies . Many pennies that suffered many bad reputations in their past lives and left for dead for years suddenly woke up from their long slumber , rose from the SGX graveyard like zombies to seduce  the public once more  with new hastily fabricated growth stories  ( eg.   Oceanus, GMG, Raffles education, otto marine etc etc the list is endless  ) . 

As a result, most of our predictions  made in our recent posts before QE3 -click here were realized in less than 4 trading days post QE3  ie. price targets were hit or exceeded and now undergoing some reactions .  Heavy supply at many reactions seem well absorbed for selected secondliners & pennies ..while blue chips were off recent highs &  quite reluctant to participate or strike new heights.

It is perhaps time to provide further updates in the outlook towards Nov 6  & review the fate of predictions made in recent posts( by comparing predictions in annotated old charts from old posts and latest updated chart side by side  - click on the stock names in orange below to see old posts carrying the predictions )  . We divide the predictions into  :

(i)  predictions that took 1-2 days to hit target & reacted south  ( Ezion@1.27   , Oil @98, Dyna-mac at 54c  )   

(ii)  predictions that took 3-4  days to hit target & reacted south ( Midas@42Yoma @ 44

(iii)  predictions that missed target  so far ( Genting SP missed by 2c , tigerair has not take-off the runway at all  )  ..

(iv) predictions that were happily over-exceeded in swing targets thanks to a stronger than expected QE3 package ( STi  ,  Gold ) or  take-overs ( Sakari, F&N )  

(v) predictions of bottoming of stocks    : bottoming of Wilmar at $3 , the fierce rally of commodity stocks ( noble, olam, sakari  ) ,  oil stocks ( Dyna-mac bounce at 48  ) and  bottoming of Genting SP ,  after they all hit significant  swing reaction bottoms.

Outlook for next few weeks : 

As the STi approaches  3109 - 3133 , there will be a reaction south . Due to QE3 unlimited , it may be a weak reaction well absorbed  but many blue chips seem reluctant to participate in this QE3 rally so far,  leaving the dance floor  to second liners & pennies. So  some pennies may take a chance to rally before that ....or they  may not , to dance their last tango in a hurry , hopefully completed before the music stops for everyone... 

Below Outlook Updated 23 sept 2012  : 

Difficult week  ahead to predict :  Global Equity Indices look tired requiring a pause for recharging  amidst  window dressing for selected stocks that have done really well 

The BlueChip STi index, HSi & Dow look tired and may fall slightly beginning of week or go sideways to do some recharging while window dressing may appear towards end of next week to prop up selected stocks that have done really well ... as there are  many permutations of possibilities in space and time  , it is rather difficult to predict for the week ahead, but just for kicks, I will try some low-confidence calls here   , not for you to follow ,caveat emptor  .


Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Front-running & fading QE3 announcement on 13 Sept : Ezion , Midas , Genting SP, STi

Post DNC, with Obamaism all the rage, with Romney & tea party all but toast, an Obama victory all but certain coupled with a clean sweep of the house on Nov 6 thus paving way for a half trillion dollar fiscal stimulus boost after that , so the skies looking bright  to Nov 6 .. albeit with occasional dark clouds along the caveat emptor .. 

 & with bad employment data from last friday plus  a sagging europe & a hard-landing china , that gives Bernanke a free hand  to push his favorite drug -  QE3 at coming fomc on Thurs 13 sept  , to inflate Obama  to a new high, to reflate the world economy  and not least to deflate Romney.

With China landing hard with 18th party congress in Oct , we see big fiscal stimulus programs in the works - plans " for  25 rail projects & construction of 2000 kilometers of highways in the country."    plus more stimulus announcements to follow ..though some would argue most of the stimulus money would end up in pockets of corrupt officials which would then be siphoned out of the country & into casinos overseas for washing ... so yummmy yummmy Genting SP,  here we come ... give us a special table & special room.. no cctv please because we are all chinese , disciples from ocean eleven - we can headfake your cameras at every turn - so nobody reports any profits nor pays any  taxes   .. after a good wash,  let's give each other a high five ..which  leaves nothing for your stock price .

In Europe,  the hole is getting deeper by the day with no resolution in sight.  But the near term happy event is the German constitutional court ruling on the 500bn euro ESM bailout fund which is expected to pass on wed without hiccup ( cross fingers )  which will then lead to Spain asking for a bailout .. 

On thurs night we may get a temporary burst of euphoria in the Dow with announcement of QE3 which may be followed by a gap up in the STi on Friday morning into which we can start taking some profits off the table in a reactionary move... 

 of course since this QE3 announcement is highly anticipated & everyone's front-running it   (  with gold racing to a 1750 peak , DX to a 70.80 bottom ) , so we may not  have a gap up..  while some may even consider selling  before thurs 5pm before Bernanke speaks ... 

 So what's the QE3 playbook ?  here are some suggestions following  discussions in last post on 6 sept  ( click here to see comments section esp the last comment  )  but of course  caveat emptor , Bernanke may just keep mum again then we have a gap down which however is highly unlikely given Bernanke would not want to disappoint market expectations  this time round ( given the considerations of the first 2 paras of this post ) unlike Jackson Hole :

Thursday, 6 September 2012

Relative Strength in post Jackson Hole decline : Ezion rally on ECB bond buying program & QE3 hopes ( .. with updates in comments section ..)

In my last post on 29 aug ( click here : " Jitters landing into Jackson Hole" ) ,  I had a bout of jitters over the outcome of  Bernanke's impending speech at Jackson Hole & accordingly dumped 3/4 of my portfolio over a few days up to & including that day ( genting sp, ezion  , sakari  etc ).

The very next day , the STi gap down from its small 10 pt slide the previous 6 days ( as predicted by the 22 aug post- click here )   into a precipitous 60 pt plunge over another 6 days which hit a  intermediate reaction  level today ( see below chart which speaks a thousand words )  .

As the Sti plunged , most second liners plunged as well , notably Genting SP  plunged to 1.31 ( from high of 1.395 )  and Dyna-mac down to 48c( down from high of 54c)    both of which hit their reaction levels today & bounced.

While most stocks plunged in the last 6 days , I noticed some second liner stocks held up quite well , in particular Ezion .   

Ever since  I sold 3/4 of my Ezion at 1.08 in my last post ,to my surprise ,  it had not corrected much , never gone below my  1.04 reaction level in my earlier chart posted on 22 aug( click here)  in which i first saw an opportunity to buy Ezion , hoping for a rally to 1.15 but failed to break out of 1.09 twice... thanks to market jitters over  impending outcome of  jackson hole on 31 aug  or ecb meeting today.

...  until today 1654 hrs when it crossed 1.09 for the first time after 2 failed attempts in recent days  , with furious buying that started at  15:28:53 when some one whacked 1,000 shares at 1.07  with Shanghai up  0.7% and on a rising hsi   & a strong DAX --  headsup indications  from big boys who somehow knew that tonight's ECB's bond buying program and US ADP jobs report will be good or expecting a good fomc next week after Bill Clinton's rousing speech last nite at Democratic national convention.

As Ezion prices rose on furious buying , I managed to collect 500 lots at avg price of  1.09   .. it closed at day high of 1.11

at moment of this writing , the dow is up >200 pts,  I hope this will give Ezion enough momentum tomorrow morning or next few days  to hit 1.15-1.16 for a dump .