Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Genting earnings play - analysts throwing in the towel ?

Ever since  CEO of Genting-SP or RWS  sold some 900k shares at about $2.05  on 27 Sept 2010 after announcing better than  expected results , Genting shares climbed up to an all-time  high of  2.35 on 9 Nov 2010  on a spate of analyst upgrades  before crashing all the way to 1.22 last week  after a persistent stream of  bad news -- earnings below expectations almost quarter after quarter  , the last 3 pieces of bad news being SG government curbs on over-gambling at casinos for locals , China slowdown affecting visitors at Macau and MBS-LVS worse than expected earnings.

Given the recent deluge of analyst downgrades after worse than expected results from LVS/ MBS,   the most optimistic analyst left standing has probably thrown in the towel on Genting SP so maybe now is the time to pump the stock again , at least until earnings release on  10 Aug though one has to take into account the STi appears to have hit a temporary top or roadblock at 3040/50 (see last post)  which may not break until Bernanke-Draghi utters QE or brandishes new bazookas , hopefully this week    so caveat emptor ..

see also : Genting SP - trust the chart , not the news-click here 

Thursday, 19 July 2012

Taking Profit : exiting Kepcorp's fierce rally on good Q2 results & toppish market

2 posts ago on 3 Jul  , entitled " Short Squeeze : Kepcorp on a fierce rally" , when Kepcorp was trading at about $10.80 , I expected it to go past $11.20 when I mentioned in the last paragraph of that post  :

Today I was rewarded for my guts to re-enter at a higher price barely an hour after my exit yesterday when i realised my prognosis of a strong reaction was wrong.  It went up to close at 14.4c today ... this time round , I will be mindful not to sell my kepcorp wrts until kepcorp gets pass $11--  until the big  & small boys who betted  the farm &  shorted big time  into this euro summit get their asses completely burnt."

after that post from 3 jul  , though  kepcorp went through a reaction at 10.95(  which was within my expectations  ) , I stuck to my guns and did not sell out on the reaction  because I wanted to ride my kepcorp wrts all the way past  my $11 barrier as I was very bullish about this fierce rally as mentioned above ... 

 Yesterday I had expected a good Dow for last nite.  I knew the Kepcorp earnings are coming out today 19 jul 5pm ..  I expected kepcorp to break the $11 barrier to about $11.30-40 for this earnings season ... 

With a base of 400 wrts at 12.5c bought earlier on 2 jul above ,    I decided to pyramid up, adding yesterday 330 lots of kepcorp wrts at  14.4c at about  0930 hrs when kepcorp was trading at about $10.95.   see below on "yesterday done order".. This brings my total kepcorp wrts to 730 lots at average price of  13.35c --today it hit a high of 17.4c( see below watchlist ). 

 At about 1553hrs yesterday after hsi hit base & bounced  , kepcorp broke my $11 barrier ( removing  540 lots sitting pretty on ask Queue )  and went up 9c  to 11.09.. it closed at 11.05. 

Last nite the dow went up 103 pts and this morning kepcorp opened gap up and closed almost at day high of 11.24   ..and my wrts rose to 17.1c ... see above watchlist .. 

 At 5pm today Kepcorp announced good 2Q results , a 35.4% rise year on year on property unit gains , paying out div of 18c/shr but expects offshore margin constraints in coming months. 

 I feel that Kepcorp price would be  rather toppish at 11.30-40 ( at least in the short term) and I expect a  STi down reaction anytime now  ( 3040/50 looks peakish )   , so  I will dump 2/3 if not all of my kepcorp wrts tomorrow morning when it comes close .

Looking back , it  has  been a long wild ,  satisfying ride   ever since we called a bottom to kepcorp at 9.60 ( see    8 may post-click here    and  also click here 2 jul post on "Betting on Germany vs Italy with kepcorp wrts  ) 

Tuesday, 10 July 2012

Myanmar plays defy gravity - Yoma and Interra

Today HSi hit a small pivot to have a weak bounce and STi reacted - sending many pennies up ... esp Mynamar plays..  Interestingly,  2 bluechip telco stocks Singtel & Starhub also went up by a strong 6-7c  giving the STi a boost over a non performing HSi..

Actually many pennies had broken out of accumulation since 10 -11 days ago - while some pulled back somewhat, some are on a steady run like Myanmese  oil/gas play Interra which is about to hit my short-term target of 50c where I expect a downward reaction.. However, as  Interra was not on my watchlist previously , I am more than happy to miss its fierce run.

One Myanmese penny that has not run but was in consolidation pattern for past 15 days was Yoma and i was watching it like a hawk yesterday and today as I expected a penny run this week ..   I had expected Yoma to have a late start compared to other pennies  as  there is an overhang of shares that has to be absorbed from the public who subscribed to right shares which was just released for trading on 2 jul or last mon..   

  Throughout this morning , the transacted volume was quite low , at most 500 lots per trade  ...   

At 1438 hrs some operator whacked 5,500lots at 38c   and yoma never looked back after that  despite a weak HSi , closing at dayhigh of 41.5c.. I managed to enter at 39c in 2 trades( see below order book) .... I expect a down reaction at 42-42.5c - see below chart .    

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Short Squeeze on Spanish victory or QE3 ? : Kepcorp on a fierce rally

Now for the hindsight on the "supporting" fundamentals :

6 posts ago on 31 may " riding on yoma rights ",in the last para, I stated a suggestion ( which i got from some economist on the web )  that Spain might be the final battleground to save the euro. last friday Germany lost  2-1 to Italy in the semis -- against market expectations or as a result Merkel finally gave in to Italian demands for direct bank recapitalisation ..  and yesterday Spain trounced Italy 4-0  to win the euro 2012 finals .. so it appears the finals battleground was won by Spain after all . ... a pyschic octopus oracle by the name of Paul  in some German acquarium might have predicted all this( click to see video )  -- had he still been alive , life would have been much simpler ... and then we had the weak US data to fan QE3 hopes...

 so much for  fuzzy "fundamentals" .... Now for the action on technicals:.

Monday's market behaviour was markedly different from responses to previous euro summits. Usually there is a fierce sell-down  into the brief moment of euphoria upon conclusion of each summit.

This time it was different.  At morning open , the STi hit 2900 and reacted down as I expected .. However the reaction this time round was relatively muted.  

At about 1419 hrs,  when kepcorp hit about 10.62  ,  I thought the euphoria was over and  sold at 12.3c  my 200 kepcorp wrts bought on last friday at 9.7c  ..

 However at about 1500 hrs, I saw that the  downward reaction I had expected on the STi  had fizzled out and reversed into upward strength ...when the STi surged past  my 2900 barrier ,  immediately I realised my prognosis for a strong downward reaction  for sti at 2900 was terribly wrong.. 

Suspecting a short squeeze on the deluge of shorts by the big boys that accompanied the widespread gloom leading to the euro summit last friday  ,  I entered long again on my Kepcorp call wrt .. at a higher price that I sold  barely an hour earlier .. 400 lots at 12.5c  .. see below orderbook.  

Today I was rewarded for my guts to re-enter at a higher price barely an hour after my exit yesterday when i realised my prognosis of a strong reaction was wrong.  It went up to close at 14.4c today ... this time round , I will be mindful not to sell my kepcorp wrts until kepcorp gets pass $11--  until the big  & small boys who betted  the farm &  shorted big time  into this euro summit get their asses completely burnt.

Capitaland target  2.88 - 2.90 

Monday, 2 July 2012

A fluke call but profitable nonetheless - betting on Germany vs Italy with Kepcorp wrts

Recently, for the best part of June , I was on holiday without bringing my pc along and could not do any posting. I wanted to take a break from trading & financial affairs so the only tv i watched while holidaying was the euro 2012 soccer matches. 

However, on 20 jun , a reader Mr Eric wrote me regarding my outlook for the STi so I took the opportunity to reply him at some hotel internet terminal.( see extract of email below in which i predicted sti will rally to 2900 after a  downward reaction at 2860  -see last friday's STi chart below )  

Given the widespread gloom leading to the  euro summit  last thurs/friday , if I had known it through the news media, I could never have predicted the euphoric outcome of the euro summit last friday  that brought the STi to almost 2900 or forecast the  fomc's non-commitment to  QE3   "leading" to the mini-crash or reaction  right after STi hits 2860.

However , by hook or by fluke , the STi behaved exactly as i "predicted" in my email to Eric and you can have my word that is the only email regarding STi outlook that I wrote throughout that holidays - at any rate I don't  normally do forecast on the market outlook in emails. 

So  I sometimes wonder if it is better to analyse the charts without any access to any news like when u are on a holiday ( or your tv or internet is down  )  as i suspect the newsflow are intentionally fed by the big boys to mainstream media to create panic or euphoria  in the market ( so that they can sell into the euphoria or buy into the panic in large volume ) which  tends to create an intended wrong bias in our analysis of the chart.

anyway the moment I returned home from holidays  last friday morning  before Frau Merkel  finally gave in to Italian & Spanish demands (  after  Italy beat Germany 2:1  in the semis to meet Spain in the eurofinals)  , I bought 200 lots of kepcorp call wrts at average price of about 9.7c , expecting to cash out into the euphoria of the euro summit first thing this Monday morning in which I expect a Sti gap up on open but may suffer  a downward reaction afterwards.  

On Wed, Jun 20, 2012 at 2:15 AM, Eric  wrote:
Hi Bill,
Thanks for taking your time to reply to my email.
I was just a little unsure if the rally was sustainable given the relatively lower volume for the past few trading days. Your comments were duly noted, and I shall stay with the momentum.
Thank you once again.

From: bill e <bille33333@gmail.com>
To: Eric
Sent: Wednesday, 20 June 2012, 1:17
Subject: Re: Sti

Hi Eric,

 actually i am quite bullish in short term .. a nice bottom was formed on 4 jun ..

 the breakdown of trend line on 1 jun was a false break n reversed   ..which means the current uptrend is strong.

 sti should hit 2900 in short term with short reaction at 2860.

On Mon, Jun 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM, Eric  wrote:
Hi bill,
Just like to get your thoughts (if possible) on the STi.
Would you consider the current STI lvl as a dead cat bounce senario or a change of trend kinda situation. The uptrend trendline on Sti was breached on 1st June and eventually price got back above the trendline by 15June. What is your bias?
Many Thanks and appreicate your kind sharing to the public.