Thursday, 31 May 2012

Riding on Yoma rights : a quick punt on a quick pump

 See 2 posts or 3 weeks  ago, while  yoma was plummeting on its way from 63c to its eventual 35c bottom ,   I mentioned  "I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely .."   

 Eventually it hit a bottom of 35c and then hover around a basing of  38/39c for a few days ( see chart below )  when the general market found a temporary bottom in the recent crash following the recent failed greek elections. 

Admittedly I was not monitoring yoma in the recent crash post french-greek election as I was preoccupied with playing the  euro & HSi  ,  .. in fact i had removed yoma from my stock watchlist and populated it with hsi wrts about 2 weeks after I dumped my yoma shares , almost at its peak at 61c - see 10 April post "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment"  and  also 26 april post "Yoma in distribution?"

So when yoma declared its cum-rights on tues,  I was totally unaware ..   it was only after yoma rose 7c to 46c that day, thrusting it to the top 20-%-gainers list  that I took notice of its cum-rights declaration..  

Immediately , I added yoma back to my watch list & gave it the front-row seat it deserves ..

But I did not want to give chase after a 7c rise  .. as i  do not believe in chasing an extended move . I needed a good entry & patience is the name of this game..

However I was cognizant or mindful  of  the operator's  determination to pump or markup the stock  skyhigh for a successful rights issue  despite volatile market conditions ..and I am more than happy to ride along .

To that effect, in the  last post  ,  I suggested that yoma operator may push Yoma to 50c or more .. despite volatile market conditions  as depicted in my yoma chart with my predicted annotations from that post  shown below :

Yesterday Yoma retraced 4c to close at 41c ( see  low vol last  red candle in bottom most chart ), after the HSi  crashed 2%,  giving me a foretaste of the dow nite to come.   and plunged the dow did , plummeting some 1.2% last nite.

This morning was ex-rights date for yoma -- meaning those who bought yoma from today onwards will not be given the rights ..but can buy it on open market starting next week (7 Jun 9am) til 15 Jun 5pm    if so desired.

 But i was unaware of this before market opens , thinking ex-date was 4 june next monday.

So when yoma opened this morning at 33.5c ( yesterday close was 41c ) , I was initially taken by surprise but not many seconds passed before i noticed that Yoma had graduated, changing its tag from  "CR" to "XR"  ( see watchlist below )   -- so yoma had gone ex-rights  today . , hence the downward adjustment in price from yesterday's close of 41c.

Luckily for me , on my yoma chart , yoma price was adjusted for this XR event and i noticed it opened exactly at yesterday's close.( see bottom most chart )

This morning , I noticed the hsi will open gap down near  temporary demand & gold was turning up & the euro/usd had already hit my temporary demand at 1.237 and then enjoying a short-covering bounce( or dead cat bounce ? )  to prepare for an eventual next short-term 1.220 then 1.200  for eur/usd over next few days(weeks?) .

To this end , I  had shorted the euro last nite on a very late entry at 1.240 & took one  third  profits at 1.237- a reaction level , hoping to carry the rest of shorts  to 1.230 (  on fri,  I took another one third profits here @ 1.230 -  another reaction level  and  the remaining third was stopped out at 1.243  - updated 2 june  )   then 1.220 then 1.200 and eventually to parity ...  ( see eur/usd ladder below )  ... 

So with the "dead cat bounce "  tailwind on my back, when i noticed yoma price started turning up again a few minutes after open  ,  I took 300 lots at market at average price of  34.5c.  It eventually closed at 40c, after hitting a high of 41c ..( see below)  

Below , I show 2 yoma charts - the first one was my annotated chart in tues post depicting my predicted trajectory for yoma price , the other is the chart of actual yoma price adjusted for ex-rights in today's chart  ..  The two trajectories look like spitting images of one another if one were to look at it with reference to the corresponding orange horizontal lines on the 2 charts ...  

tuesday chart above with prediction trajectory upon cum rights declaration

today's( thurs)  yoma chart below with price adjustment for ex-rights, note similarity with above chart  between predicted & actual trajectory.- make reference to corresponding horizontal orange lines between the 2 charts.

I am mindful that the purpose behind all these pumping action is to persuade existing entitled holders of rights to subscribe for rightshares( entitled & excess )   and to attract buyers for yoma rights that will be offered on open market next week starting7 jun & ending 15 Jun 5pm  with the view to their eventual  exercise or subscription at 24c on 22 jun 5pm .. 

after that , the operator may have no strong incentive  to support yoma stock price anymore for some time to come  so I will try to evacuate myself , quietly head for the fire exit  before the clock strikes twelve  and not be left holding the  baby & bath water ..

at any rate, we have the Greek elections on 17 June  and there is no telling what the Greeks will do in this endless game of chicken , blackmail , trojan horses  ...  with a messy divorce of epic proportions on the cards  & Spain as the final battleground to decide the fate of the euro,  the recent market crash has yet to run its course , the nite is long &  the road ahead  bumpy so it is best to err on the side of caution if you are on a risk-on trade .

Disclaimer :  Of course the above is just my private hypothesis for my private consumption & not yours  and I could be wrong .. so  caveat emptor..

** updated 2 jun --  some friends have asked me for details of the rights offer , **disclaimer - I bear no responsibility for any errors of mistaken or omitted facts or interpretation below, so read at your own risk n do your own diligence  :


meaning for every 5 shares you bought  before 31 may  , they will give you  4 rights & for each right , you will have to pay 24c to get a new yoma share( called rightshare) by 22 jun 5pm .

 So if  you have 10 lots of yoma before XR (31 may), you will be getting for free  8k rights for which you will have to pay 24c x8k = $1.92 k  to convert your right shares into 8 lots of new yoma shares by 22 june 5pm.

 if you got rights thanks to your entitlement  and not intending to pay 24c  per share to convert them into new yoma shares , you should sell the rights into the market when they start trading on 7 jun on the SGX exchange otherwise they become worthless when the trading of rights stops on 15 June 5 pm and you still don't want to convert  by 22 June 5pm..

If you want to apply for  free excess rights( this is available  to people who held at least one yoma share before 31 may and if there is net left over of rights from net under-subscription  as of  22 jun 5pm ) & convert them to shares , you can also fill in the form sent to you  and submit with payment ( 24c per excess right applied for ) by 22 June 5pm or through electronic means(ATM) stated below.

Important Dates and Times
Entitled Shareholders and Purchasers should take note of the following important dates and
times in respect of the Rights Issue:
Despatch of Offer Information Statement : 7 June 2012
(together with forms) to Entitled Shareholders
Commencement of trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 7June 2012 from 9.00 a.m.
Last date and time for splitting Rights : 12 June 2012
Last date and time for trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 15 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
Last date and time for acceptance of and : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
payment for Rights Shares (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Last date and time for acceptance of and : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
payment for Rights Shares by renounces (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Last date and time for application and payment : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
for excess Rights Shares (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Expected date for issuance of Rights Shares : 29 June 2012
Expected date for crediting of Rights Shares : 29 June 2012
Expected date for refund of unsuccessful : 2 July 2012
applications (if made through CDP)
Expected date for the listing and : 2 July 2012 from 9.00 a.m.
commencement of trading of Rights Shares

1. DBS Bank Ltd. (including POSB)
2. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited
3. United Overseas Bank Limited and its subsidiary, Far Eastern Bank Limited

The Company has obtained a written irrevocable
undertaking from the Undertaking Shareholder to, inter
alia, subscribe and/or procure subscriptions for (a) his
pro rata entitlements to 211,148,414 Rights Shares
(direct and indirect) under the Rights Issue; and (b) up to
168,018,254 of the balance of the Rights Shares which
are not subscribed or applied for by Entitled
Shareholders other than himself, which will amount to


Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Rebound or Dead Cat bounce ? : STi to retest 2826 , Kepcorp may test 10.50, Yoma finally announces cum-rights & operator repumps Yoma at 38.5c to support it.

At the start of the recent mini-crash after the French/greek elections 3 weeks ago, I predicted a bottom for that leg of the crash for the Sti at 2799. In the end , it went down to 2759, a 40 pt under-estimation on my part so there is some more fine-tuning work to do here .  This rebound ( or dead cat bounce which many analysts had called this bounce  )  should take STi to 2826  & then maybe 2877( a long shot ? ) .. failing which we may see another bout of  plunging .. so let's watch closely for any sign of weakness .  

In the last post  3weeks ago , I mentioned "  I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely "... it subsequently sank to a bottom of 35c which was close  to my second last reaction levels of 36c..( see below chart ) 

Now that the market has found a temporary bottom , true to form, today the Yoma operator finally decided to exploit this window of opportunity   ( which may not last )   to do a strong re-pumping from 38.5c  to 46c all on one day  - see super-long green candle in chart above -  in a superfast markup ( with just a 1m share buy at 39c at 9.20am & 1m share buy at 41c at 9.52am  - leading one to  wonder if these transactions are anything but ...   )  to support the announcement of cum-rights issue( ex-date 4 June which is next Monday ) ( sorry , i got  the ex-date wrong, it is 31 May ,  record date is 4 Jun so the rights will be traded next week  )   

 I guess  the operator may further pump it to 50c  or more in another superfast mark-up( maybe towards friday close  if market sentiment is any good or during the ex-right period to ex-right equivalent price of  38.4c or more  )   to persuade the public to buy more rights & subscribe to the rights  at 24c   .. of course this could be a long shot in this difficult environment   & I could be wrong here .. so let's watch closely.

 If yoma maintains current price of 45c , ex-right yoma price would be 35.6c on Monday assuming market sentiment remains constant  which may be able to persuade people to fork out 24c to subscribe...  if  operator had allowed yoma to plunge to 29.5 level ( see last post's chart below  ) ,  the ex-right price would be 27c which is too close for comfort for rights subscribers in this volatile environment. 

but of course buyers beware , once the rights are exercised by the public and 24c is collected from the public , the operator may have no strong incentive to support yoma share price anymore for some time to come  for a variety of reasons too complicated to discuss here and now  ....

 ... Kepcorp 's recent crash to bottom  exceeded  my first crash target of $9.90 in last post ( see below ) by 10c and 20c short of my over-pessimistic  final target of $9.60.   may hit 10.40-50 in this rebound ( or dead cat bounce  ? ) .. so cross fingers  & watch closely for any sign of weakness..

the Edge chart analysis on Kepcorp  

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

STi in wake of French/Greek revolt & Two charts from the Edge magazine : Yoma & Kepcorp

Over the weekend , I flipped through the latest edition of The Edge magazine ( for week may 7 -may13) and saw a chart analysis on Yoma by The Edge's technical analyst   who said  she had a confirmation of  a topping formation in Yoma and she expected Yoma , if it breaks down from 50c , ( which happened yesterday, Monday 7 may  )  to hit 27c after some  upward reactions at 40c, I reproduce her analysis here :

Recalling my 10 April post on "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment? "   , I had already expected Yoma 's breakdown  when it was still trading at 60-63c  ( see last post " Yoma in distribution? "    ) and to have a fall with weak upward reactions  or corrections at 50c, 46c, 42.5c,  36c and 29.5c like in chart below .

We shall watch with keen interest which  way or trajectory the Yoma operator is going to operate his stock - somewhere in between the Edge's 27c target trajectory and mine or something totally out of whack from  our both of our  expectations in which case we will have to adjust our  expectation trajectory accordingly. I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely ...  -- see below STi trajectory.

I also saw from the previous week's Edge magazine ( for  week of  april 23-29),   a chart analysis of Kepcorp when Kepcorp was trading at $11.55 . I also reproduce their analysis here, which seems to me somewhat overbullish at that moment ( see my analysis in 25 april  post  and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo 
where I mentioned insiders and smart money are selling like no tomorrow ( and to that effect , I  showed a contra statement of my dumping with Kepcorp@11.62   ) while the public and mainstream technical analysis or indicators are sucked into the  ecstasy and euphoria  over the  USD 4 bn contract  news,  strongly tempting technical analysts to  upgrade their 'technical' targets to $12 or more,  like below )

In the same issue I saw a more "muted" or balanced article on Kepcorp " Orders boom for Kepcorp but margins and upside muted " by Kang Wan Chern , I reproduce part of the article here, which somewhat corresponds more to my sombre or bearish  view at that time ( see my analysis in 25 april  post     and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo)   

In this mini crash following last weekend's French/Greek elections calling for more stimulus and less austerity, I expect Kepcorp to hit 10.40 after some upward reaction or corrections at 10.65 .  What happens after 10.40 is subject to general market conditions which I expect to be quite bad so I wouldn't be surprised if it hits below $10, if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. see updated STi & kepcorp trajectory below 

 In the wake of the french/ greek revolt against german austerity  and if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. the STi may   take a slow and bumpy fall to 2833 ( updated to 2800 on 9 may ) with upward reactions at 2908 ,2879, 2857 .  The trajectory is not meant for trading the STi , they are used for aiding the trading of stocks & warrants ...This chart will be pasted inside STi roadmap 'tab' for short-term reference.


updated kepcorp chart 11 may 2012