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Monday, 29 August 2011
Sunday, 28 August 2011
Bernanke seeks strong fiscal stimulus package from Obama speech on 5 Sept to complement Fed's monetary stimulus , pleads with tea party Republicans not to sabotage approval process and economic recovery once again in the name of deficit reduction ... leaves new monetary stimulus decision to 20-21 Sept extended fomc .......... The STi should enjoy a small relief rally having bottomed out at 2680 .. before political intimidation from republicans and bad news from Europe comes back to haunt markets again ..
The STi should enjoy a small relief rally having bottomed out at 2680 - first stop 2765 retrace then 2780 retrace then 2815-30 before it suffers a strong but brief downward reaction there .. then we shall see ...
Kepcorp bottoms out at 8.40 -- first stop 8.62 then retrace then 8.72 retrace then 8.82 - maintain short-term profit target $9-$9.12 before we see a strong but brief downward reaction there .. then we shall see ...
Genting bottoms out at 1.46 first stop 1.60 retrace then maybe 1.65-1.67 before it suffers a strong but brief downward reaction there .
Kepcorp bottoms out at 8.40 -- first stop 8.62 then retrace then 8.72 retrace then 8.82 - maintain short-term profit target $9-$9.12 before we see a strong but brief downward reaction there .. then we shall see ...
Genting bottoms out at 1.46 first stop 1.60 retrace then maybe 1.65-1.67 before it suffers a strong but brief downward reaction there .
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Friday, 26 August 2011
Thursday, 25 August 2011
Wednesday, 24 August 2011
Buffet : Dear Readers , sign up as followers of SGX Swing Trader .... and drop Bill E an email if you got time ..
Hi ,
I have created a follower gadget on the right column ... this is to facilitate discussions between followers on Google Friend Connect ...
Regular readers of my blog are encouraged to sign up as followers for the reasons stated below ...
The market is a dynamic place... market conditions and sentiment can turn on a dime.. eg..natural disasters like tsunami can happen without warning ..
I update my blog usually about once a day , sometimes more frequent , more often less ..
writing a blog requires one to commit to a certain macro market view conditioned upon a certain trading time frame ( 1 day - 1 week ) and certain market conditions both implicitly assumed by the blogger but are invariably not explicitly specified for both owing to constraints of time and space and elasticity of supply and demand with respect to time ..
this also has the obvious disadvantage that it does not cover certain shorter time frame counter trend opportunities that present themselves very frequently ..
for example, a golden single-day or daytrade shorting opportunity presented itself this morning at open ..which runs counter to general uptrend ( for dow , shanghai ) or sidetrend with upward bias( for hsi , sti ) to Bernanke's speech on friday but is still very profitable for shorting at open and closing the short by 5pm. I am sure this shorting will not be very profitable if you hold it for 2 days.
Obviously this short term day-trade bearish event is quite confusing or stressful for anyone who is already heavily committed to the general uptrend on the longer timeframe of a few days to the Bernanke speech at Jackson hole.
a very profitable trade or view in one time frame can be a very unprofitable one in another time frame esp when one is over committed in his trading capital .
to mitigate the confusion , if time and resources permit and response from readers is good , I may provide more real time update on twitter / msn / skype / emails or discussion group but no promise .. ..
to explore the possible formation of a more real time service , please send me a email ( to bille33333@gmail.com ) stating your skype/msn / facebook / twitter name or address .
if convenient , please tell me whether you trade in stocks ( which exchange / platform ? ) , bonds, commodity, forex, options / warrants , futures etc ... and the number of years you have been trading , your trading time frame( day trader, swing or position trader ) etc , so that i can tailor the blog to wider interest groups if I got time ( which is always a big constraint ..) .
if also convenient , feedback on how you use the blog, whether your trading decisions have benefitted or suffered from reading the blog( in relation to any particular posts , in particular etc ) and /or any areas for improvement is welcome ...
Last but not least, please click on the "Join this site" gadget on the right column and follow instructions that follow.
If you are hesitant about writing the email , just joining as a follower would be just fine.
Bill E
Tuesday, 23 August 2011
Bill E's take : Markets should enjoy a slow nice rally from here through friday to greet Bernanke's QE3 speech at Jackson hole ....
STi should rise to 2815-2825 after bouncing off from 2685-2720 ,, then retrace then maybe 2865-85 ... then retrace then maybe 2915 if Bernanke presents a "QE3 with shock and awe"
Kepcorp should rise to $9 after bouncing off from $8.30-40.
Kepcorp should rise to $9 after bouncing off from $8.30-40.
Monday, 22 August 2011
DJ MARKET TALK: More Downside To YZJ, Cosco's GFC Valuations -Kim Eng ... Bill E's Take : I think Cosco has found a temporary bottom at 96c ...
DJ MARKET TALK: More Downside To YZJ, Cosco's GFC Valuations -Kim Eng 22/08/2011 14:54 0653 GMT [Dow Jones] China-based shipbuilders Cosco Corp (F83.SG) and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SG) extend recent falls in heavy volume, down 0.5% at S$0.970 and off 1.6% at S$0.955 respectively, which Kim Eng puts down to "a grimmer outlook" for Chinese shipbuilders "in the face of a slower order flow and rising costs from labour, raw materials and yuan appreciation." It notes Cosco is down almost 60% from its January 2011 high of S$2.42. It says in 2008, Cosco traded at trough P/B of 1.44X and applying the same multiple translates to floor value of S$0.77, based on NAV of S$0.535. It adds Yangzijiang is acknowledged as one of the more efficient shipyards in China, but "we do not think it will be immune to the current predicament." Further, Yangzijiang traded at trough P/B of 1.2X during the global financial crisis, implying a floor value of S$0.75, though the house notes continued share price weakness has prompted several insiders, including its Executive Chairman, to resume open market purchases. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com) Bill E's Take : I think Cosco has found a temporary bottom at 96c . |
Thursday, 18 August 2011
DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Starts Cosco Corp. At Underperform,Target S$1.00
DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Starts Cosco Corp. At Underperform,Target S$1.00
0057 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Daiwa initiates Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) at Underperform with a S$1.00 target price. "We believe Cosco Corp Singapore's premium to its peers over the past three years is no longer justified, due to: its exposure to bulk shipping, and the operating profit-margin contraction trend," the house says. It expects Cosco's share price to derate from its above-average and higher-than-peers' P/E. It notes the shipbuilder's operating-profit margin has been falling since it started on new offshore rig-building projects; "this trend was confirmed in the 2Q11 results." It adds, Cosco's exposure to bulk shipping is negative given the current oversupply of ships and weak demand due to the global economic slowdown. "Notwithstanding the about 70% fall in the share price since the company announced worse-than-expected 2Q11 results (Aug. 1), we expect further share-price downside from further negative margin surprises." The house prefers Keppel (BN4.SG), rated Outperform, for "its better operational efficiency, earnings outlook, and attractive valuations." Cosco shares closed down 1.8% at S$1.11 Tuesday. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)
Note : Cosco share price and Daiwa's target price is fast approaching our unwavering 90c call made on 10 Aug 2011 ...( despite the recent sharp general market rebound with Buffet bullish prompting and cosco analysts' consensus target calls above $1.20 ) see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/08/cosco-70c-here-we-come.html
0057 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Daiwa initiates Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) at Underperform with a S$1.00 target price. "We believe Cosco Corp Singapore's premium to its peers over the past three years is no longer justified, due to: its exposure to bulk shipping, and the operating profit-margin contraction trend," the house says. It expects Cosco's share price to derate from its above-average and higher-than-peers' P/E. It notes the shipbuilder's operating-profit margin has been falling since it started on new offshore rig-building projects; "this trend was confirmed in the 2Q11 results." It adds, Cosco's exposure to bulk shipping is negative given the current oversupply of ships and weak demand due to the global economic slowdown. "Notwithstanding the about 70% fall in the share price since the company announced worse-than-expected 2Q11 results (Aug. 1), we expect further share-price downside from further negative margin surprises." The house prefers Keppel (BN4.SG), rated Outperform, for "its better operational efficiency, earnings outlook, and attractive valuations." Cosco shares closed down 1.8% at S$1.11 Tuesday. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)
Note : Cosco share price and Daiwa's target price is fast approaching our unwavering 90c call made on 10 Aug 2011 ...( despite the recent sharp general market rebound with Buffet bullish prompting and cosco analysts' consensus target calls above $1.20 ) see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/08/cosco-70c-here-we-come.html
DJ MARKET TALK: HSI Off 1.1%; Recent Rebound Is Over - Strategist
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
Bloomberg : Most European stocks retreated as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy rejected an expansion of the region’s rescue fund and rebuffed calls for joint euro borrowing.
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Bill E's take : Genting may drift slowly towards 1.46 - my technical downswing target ...
DJ MARKET TALK: UOBKH Keeps Genting At Technical Sell; Eyes S$1.40 ..
0239 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UOB KayHian maintains its technical Sell call on Genting Singapore (G13.SG), with a revised technical target price of S$1.40. It notes its previous Sell target price on August 5 of S$1.62 was met on Thursday, and the stock is trading below its moving averages; "it may fall further as it is not able to break above S$1.78." The house notes RSI has lost its momentum and both MACD and its signal line are pointing down, "alternatively, investors may consider exiting their shorts if prices break above S$1.85." The house tips resistance at S$1.78 with support at S$1.40. UOB KayHian's institutional research has a fundamental Buy rating on Genting with a target price of S$2.21. Shares are up 1.2% at S$1.69. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)
Bill E's take : Genting may drift slowly towards 1.46 - my technical downswing target ...
0239 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UOB KayHian maintains its technical Sell call on Genting Singapore (G13.SG), with a revised technical target price of S$1.40. It notes its previous Sell target price on August 5 of S$1.62 was met on Thursday, and the stock is trading below its moving averages; "it may fall further as it is not able to break above S$1.78." The house notes RSI has lost its momentum and both MACD and its signal line are pointing down, "alternatively, investors may consider exiting their shorts if prices break above S$1.85." The house tips resistance at S$1.78 with support at S$1.40. UOB KayHian's institutional research has a fundamental Buy rating on Genting with a target price of S$2.21. Shares are up 1.2% at S$1.69. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)
Bill E's take : Genting may drift slowly towards 1.46 - my technical downswing target ...
Monday, 15 August 2011
DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Singapore 2Q EBITDA Below Expectations
DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Singapore 2Q EBITDA Below Expectations |
0032 GMT [Dow Jones] Genting Singapore (G13.SG) may come under pressure after its 2Q11 earnings fall below expectations; the casino operator posted revenue of S$728.7 million, down 21% on quarter, while EBITDA was S$347 million, down 34% on quarter, lower than the S$378 million tipped in a Dow Jones poll of seven analysts. Daiwa says the sequential falls in revenue and EBITDA were attributable to a lower win rate of 2.66% (vs 3.8% for 1Q11) and a 13% on-quarter drop in rolling-chips volume, while the volume for mass market and slots remained stable. It notes RWS saw its market share in gross gaming revenue decline to about 50% in 2Q11 (from 60% in 1Q11). "We see the market-share changes as unexciting for Genting." Morgan Stanley says while Genting's share of Singapore's gaming market fell, the whole market also declined; "Singapore GGR dropped by 5% on quarter to US$5.65 billion in 2Q11, a significant divergence from Macau." The house also remains concerned that Genting's growth is limited by capacity. Shares closed Friday +2.7% at S$1.725. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com) |
Thursday, 11 August 2011
BUFFETT: I'M BUYING
Buffett: The lower stocks go, the more I buy -- stop reading the charts , just read my interview at http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/11/warren-buffett-buy-stocks/?iid=Lead
Wednesday, 10 August 2011
Errata : Cosco looks like heading for 90c
Errata : Cosco looks like heading for 90c later corrected to 96c see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/08/dj-market-talk-more-downside-to-yzj.html
Monday, 8 August 2011
Monday, 1 August 2011
Obama: We have a deal .......................................... Bill E: We have a sell into strength ?
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
STi to hit 3230 today ? ... Time to sell or short into strength ? ...
STi to hit 3230 today ? ... Time to sell or short into strength ? ...
1 Aug 2011 : Obama : We have a deal ..... Bill e : we have a sell into strength ?
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
STi to hit 3230 today ? ... Time to sell or short into strength ? ...
STi to hit 3230 today ? ... Time to sell or short into strength ? ...
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