Wednesday, 22 August 2012

Stealth rally to Jackson Hole on 30 Aug ? : Genting SP, Ezion , Sakari , Tiger air

As the markets worldwide await with bated breath Bernanke's speech on 31 aug at Jackson Hole  ,  the markets' line of least resistance is up .. though volume is weak on the way up.. so we are skating on thin ice here . 

 the market  weakness over next 2-3 days looks like a good opportunity to enter cheap for a quick punt for selected second liners that had been beaten down bad the past 1-2 years .

Once Bernanke lands into the hole and opens his  gap , my bet is that he is likely to disappoint the markets  since no  matter what nice things he has to say will be considered  'discounted' whatever that term means - anyway that is my hypothesis & it may be wrong & maybe Bernanke has something really shockingly nice to say after a sumptuous banquet in his honour & a drink or two .. like " show me a 5%  plunge in Dow or if Mitt Romney threatens to sack me again  and I'll  press my panic QE button " or maybe the markets will pre-empt Bernanke and drop even before he packs his suitcase to depart for Jackson Hole .... so caveat emptor.

Many blue chips in STi have already hit a plateau since 2-3 weeks ago( click  here to see comments section in that post 2 weeks ago)  , notably the banks : DBS at 15, OCBC at 9.65 & some property stocks eg. capland 3.16 , GLP  - 2.45 , F&N at 8.66  etc etc  and they are  just marking  time in sideways fashion up there... all waiting for the Bernanke to talk it up or talk it down - more likely down ...

In fact the STi appears to have already broken down  , raring  to go for a small , slow correction   ..though the fall may be so gradual that one  may not notice it ..thanks to Jackson Hole so I wouldn't be touching any bluechip for now..  

...  which may leave us some breathing room for second liners to play catchup in stealth fashion  , under the cover of a slow declining or flat STi  before the music stops .. and the music for big caps has been playing like a broken record for past 2-3 weeks ..  

As  Nymex sweet crude races to a short-term peak of  USD98 pb  ,   oil stocks will benefit .. like Kepcorp and Ezion.

Kepcorp has already broken the recent swing high of 11.30 and is edging up   for  higher grounds  while Ezion looks like waiting to hit 1.15   close to its all time high after a reaction at 1.04 first ( see chart below) .

One group of laggards that has been beaten down to less than half price  in past 1.5 years ,  hit solid rock bottom last 1-2 months and are now playing catchup and fiercely broken out of their basing are the commodity stocks eg.  noble,  olam , sakari   etc but these stocks are quite whippy like futures & they move too fast for some people.. .anyway they are now undergoing reactions after their recent fierce breakouts ..but sakari stands out as a buy  ( see below chart ) 

order book of  sakari wrt trades on 24 aug appended 27 aug ( date of PTT takeover announcement at 1.90  ) :

Fresh significant tops & bottoms were formed last  1-2 weeks :   it appears  F&N has hit a  swing top ( 8.66  )    while  Wilmar  has hit the bottom( $3 ) . 

Then there are miscellaneous assortment of laggards  which had lost about half their peak value from 1.5 years ago  like tiger air ( though high price of oil could be a concern  here )  & my recent favorite - genting sp ( click here to see last post  -- genting  sp: trust the chart not the news )   

orderbook of 22 aug trades appended on 23aug  :

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hi bill, what are your views on OSIM?