Eve of the next financial crisis : with washington in gridlock and eurozone imploding , STi looks like heading for next down swing target 2520 -40 . . chart to follow later ...

CNBC - Germany Approves Reforms to Euro Bailout Fund

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44702418

Published: Thursday, 29 Sep 2011 | 6:52 AM ET
By: Peter Guest  Staff Writer, CNBC.com

Germany's parliament has approved reforms to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) that would allow the fund to participate in the primary market and to recapitalize European banks in a much-anticipated vote in the Bundestag.

DJ MARKET TALK: HSI +2.8%; Extremely Oversold Recently - Trader

27 Sep 2011 13:52

0551 GMT [Dow Jones] Despite today's HSI rebound which snaps a 4-session 8.5% losing streak, the index remains below its 5-day moving average at 18,164, which marks the 17th consecutive session that the benchmark index is trading below its 5-day MA, observes a local trader. He says this is the probably the first time since the Asian financial turmoil back in 1997/98 that the HSI had stayed below the 5-day MA for such a long time, which shows "how oversold Hong Kong stocks are." He believes this round of rebound may take the index to the 19,000 level, and the duration could last for 2 weeks. The HSI is up 2.8% at 17,987.36 on a broad-based rebound; blue chips rallying more than 5% include China Merchants Holdings (0144.HK), Esprit (0330.HK), Cnooc (0883.HK), Ping An (2318.HK) and Chalco (2600.HK), although the fly in the ointment is that volume remains sluggish at HK$34.25 billion. (robert.li@dowjones.com)

Reuters : Fed outlook sparks 3 percent sell-off

All eyes on Bernanke this week : FOMC to be held on tues/wed to decide on next steps/tools to stimulate economic / jobs growth .. Meeting of finance chiefs in europe did not go well over the weekend ...

We had a small breakout on Friday , for those who bought but did not close positions for the weekend , it might be a good idea to take half profit at STi @ 2805  Monday morning if at all possible then take the rest at  2815-20  .. or wait out the fomc decision on wed nite ...  for me , i have closed all my positions on friday noon almost at day high , having gone long the previous days( wed , thurs - as mentioned in http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/09/reassuring-words-from-merkel-should.html  .. )
 as mentioned in previous posts all too often ,  i do not believe in holding stocks over a weekend unless in special circumstances   ....  i  may go long again tomorrow Monday depending on what signals the market sends me .. but i would prefer not to hold any positions just before release of important economic data or fomc statements.

As mentioned in previous post on tues 13 sept market still in consolidation wedge with upward bias or small relief rally from Merkel's reassuring words , preparing for a breakout anytime now - maybe next week , maybe sooner ...look for strong stocks to buy ... goodluck .. ikyp ..

As mentioned in  previous post on tues 13 sept  market still in consolidation wedge with upward bias or small relief rally from Merkel's reassuring words , preparing for a  breakout anytime now - maybe  next week , maybe sooner  ...look for strong stocks to buy  ... goodluck  ..   ikyp  .. ....  see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/09/reassuring-words-from-merkel-should.html

.. but buyers beware  - always be mindful of europe fears returning to haunt us over the weekend ..

Bloomberg : World Must Cut Deficits, Not Rely on China: Wen

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/china-s-wen-says-world-must-cut-debt-and-deficits-increase-jobs.html
By Bloomberg News - Sep 14, 2011 12:43 PM GMT+0800

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, facing calls to widen support for indebted European countries, signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy.
“Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said today at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Dalian. “Developed countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies. What is most important now is to prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.”
Stocks dropped in Asia  morning as Wen's comments damped optimism that China can help stabilize the euro-region, after Italy this month followed Spain, Portugal and Greece in seeking Chinese investment. Wen said that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is spreading, and a former adviser to China's central bank said the nation should avoid buying bonds from European countries where leaders and central bankers are in disarray.

Bill E's take - seems to concur with my comments yesterday on fallacy of financial times report  speculating that china will buy italian bonds which  triggered the previous nite's dow last hour rally - see  http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/09/reuters-update-italy-asks-china-to-buy.html  

Reassuring words from Merkel should calm markets , and provide a small relief rally to STi ..

day traders might want to short the euphoria over merkel's reassurance at open in the morning near the supply zone at sti around 2770 and go long when the market starts to turn up near 2700   ..

Sti is still in a consolidation wedge and may take a 1-2 more days to either  breakout or breakdown .. ( more likely breakout  )  .... IKYP ..

Bloomberg : Merkel Eschews ‘Uncontrolled Greek Insolvency’, expects Greece to qualify for the next tranche , mentions European Stability Mechanism allowing for orderly defaults from 2013 , but not now .

No thanks: Merkel "doesn't want to be responsible for sparking contagion

Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “Germany can’t be successful in the long run if Europe doesn’t do well at the same time.”
see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-13/merkel-says-uncontrolled-greek-insolvency-must-be-avoided-radio-reports.html

Reuters Update: Italy asks China to buy its bonds

September 13, 2011, 12.01 pm (Singapore time)

Update: Italy asks China to buy its bonds NEW YORK/BEIJING - Italy has asked China to make 'significant' purchases of Italian debt, the Financial Times reported on its website on Monday. Italian officials told the FT that Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp (CIC), headed up a delegation to Rome last week to meet with Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, and Italy's Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. Two weeks ago, Italian officials were in Beijing to meet CIC and China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which manages the bulk of China's foreign exchange reserves, the FT said. CIC is the country's US$300 billion sovereign wealth fund. China signalled in April that it could buy more debt from the eurozone's weaker states. There are no precise figures, but China has said it has bought billions of euros of debt. Wu Xiaoling, a former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told Reuters on Tuesday, that investor 'panic' about Europe's debt crisis is unnecessary, and China is ready to work with others to boost market confidence. 'We will continue to support Europe's measures in maintaining a stable euro,' said Ms Wu, who is now with the National People's Congress Standing Committee, the law-making body. With about a quarter of China's record foreign currency reserves of US$3.2 trillion estimated to be held in euro assets, Chinese leaders have repeatedly voiced support for the debt-mired single currency area. Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this month that China retains confidence in the euro and Europe's economy but the region's governments need to ensure the security of Chinese investments there. -- REUTERS Bill E's take : despite market talk , i think China is not really interested in buying toxic PIIGS bonds which she  knows are dead on arrival , china is hoping to exploit the euro crisis to buy prized assets in europe  on the cheap for her strategic use either military or commercial  - eg technology, resources companies , ports , real estate in strategic locations etc. and use the opportunity to open up eurozone markets and internationalize the RMB. so this bit of "news" could be wishful thinking or political gamesmanship on the part of  the italians , and is unlikely to move markets for long ..

Market this week will be volatile , dominated by situation in Greece - with focus on possibility of debt default and ejection from eurozone and contagion effects ..

CNN : Obama Jobs Act in 2 mins

Squared off all positions for the weekend : a tidy profit for 4 days' work and having the peace of mind to enjoy the weekend and plan for next week .. have a nice weekend and IKYP next week .

.. always be mindful of  europe fears returning to haunt us over the weekend .. what  more with Sept 11 10-year anniversary coming this Sunday  ....

Post mortem after market close on Thurs :

All our stocks hit our upward revised target bands today  -  which should trigger profit taking of some sort  -- YZJ hit high of 1.11 ( tgt band 1.11-1.14) , Kepcorp hit high of 8.85 ( tgt band 8.85-9.05)  and Genting hit 1.655 soon after  open , then correct , and closed at day high of 1.69  exceeding our expectations by 1c  ( tgt band 1.65 - 1.68) . Capitaland hit high of 2.72 ( tgt band 2.75-2.78) ouch ....miss target by 3c  ..

if we had taken profits on at least half of our portfolio this thurs morning as planned when it hit our tgt price band  ( see post mortem on wed close below http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/09/market-may-open-down-and-then-upswing_06.html)  when most stocks were at day high with Sti at around 2840-55 a zone where i would expect some profit taking ,  we would not be so stressed out by the subsequent plunge in the afternoon and would now be sitting comfortably on the remaining half of our stock for another day's upmove which hopefully should come tomorrow friday's morning  if not afternoon  if not next week  ...   

 i suppose it would be prudent money management policy to again take profit on half of the remaining half  tomorrow friday if STi hopefully hits 2880  or when the stock hits its target band ... and ride the remaining portfolio ( one quarter of the original purchase )   to next week without much stress over the weekend since we have already locked in  handsome profits on 75% of our original purchase on tues/wed  if the Obama and  Bernanke speeches are well received by the markets and congress tonite thurs...

we here revise upward our tgt band for Genting to 1.70 - 1.74, it is the the strongest horse in our stable - i would recommend taking profits on half of remaining Genting stock  tomorrow friday morning , hopefully with a good exit price within our new tgt band ( 1.70-1.74) soon after open  .. always be mindful that europe fears can always return to haunt us over a weekend  , what more with 9/11 10 -year anniversary on sunday  ....can always come back next week if there  are still   legs to its current very strong move.

Capitaland may rise to 2.75-2.78 but suffer an intital downward reaction at 2.66-2.72 first

so it is good to take half the chips off the table at 2.70-2.72 as per profit taking advice in post below when STi is about 2840-50 in the morning ..

Market tomorrow wed may open down and then upswing to old targets - Genting -1.64-1.66 , YZJ - 1.09-1.11 - Kepcorp - 8.80-90 but buyers beware .. europe fears can return anytime..

Post-mortem after market close on wed 7 sept :  all our stocks moved up as expected, most within striking distance  of our target bands , with Genting hitting high of  1.64  ( tgt 1.64-1.66) , YZJ hitting high of 1.085  ( tgt 1.09 -1.11 ) and Keppel hitting high of   8.72( tgt 9.80-8.90)

if Dow closes up tonite wed as i would  expect , then all 3 stocks should easily hit the mid to high end of our tues target bands tomorrow thurs morning when STi is about 2840-50 at which time it might be prudent money mgt policy to take half the chips off the table   and see how the markets react thereafter..

we here revise upwards our tgt bands - genting - 1.65-1.68 , yzj - 1.11 -1.14 kepcorp 8.85-9.05...

DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Off 2.4%; Rebound May Have Ended -CIMB

DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Off 2.4%; Rebound May Have Ended -CIMB 02/09/2011 12:23

0421 GMT [Dow Jones] Genting Singapore (G13.SG) is down 2.4% at S$1.61, after rising 7.5% over the last three sessions, although yesterday saw the stock end 0.9% lower at S$1.65 after retreating from an intraday high of S$1.75. CIMB says, based on charts, "a rebound (if any) would be a good opportunity to lock in recent gains." It says upside for Genting is likely to be capped by downtrend channel support-turned-resistance at S$1.78-S$1.80. "Prices hit a high of S$1.75 before turning lower yesterday. It is possible that this rebound (off a one-year low of S$1.455 hit Aug. 22) may have ended but we would allow some room for this rebound to continue for a while longer." It adds, "we cannot completely rule out that this rebound still has some legs. Nevertheless, the downside risk is now a lot higher compared to its potential reward." It adds, longer term, the downtrend could take prices back below the S$1.455 low into the S$1.25-S$1.35 range. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

NY Times : U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages

see  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/business/us-is-set-to-sue-dozen-big-banks-over-mortgages.html