Thursday, 26 April 2012

Yoma in distribution ? - small quick punt for a small transient bounce

4 posts or 16 days ago, dated 10 April entitled "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment?"  , when Yoma was galloping on a tear to new historical highs of  62-63c, I  dumped my Yoma ,  explaining that the set-up for dumping Yoma was almost perfect given the "positive " news flow and the "bullish" technicals, all carefully orchestrated or calibrated  to suck the public into buying  Yoma shares to support a good exit price for the Yoma operator to distribute or dump his shares - of course that was just my private hypothesis  to guide my trading, not yours and  I could be wrong in my hypothesis.

True to form, for the right or wrong assumptions/hypothesis, Yoma after hovering for 1.5 weeks of "distribution" between 60-63c( see chart below ) , gave way to a precipitous  fall to 50.5c in the last few days. 

Yesterday, I saw that the Yoma plunge had been quite ferocious for past 3 days  and then brought down to a reasonable support or demand  level .. I half expected the operator to find this level of 50c  sweet enough  to take  or mark Yoma up a bit to facilitate further future dumping  but was unwittingly distracted into punting what turns out to be a  very weak Kepcorp bounce which to me portends of more bearish moves to come  -see previous post : Kepcorp - a small punt for a v small bounce 

This morning , i found it not too late, an opportune moment to partake in that  "half " expected "mark-up" by the Yoma operator   ... so i decided to take a chance to enter , considering that the risk -reward is in my favor. 

However, being a total outsider , I was not very sure of the operator's  exact true intentions for the medium term so I decided to only do a small quick intraday punt , in at 52c and out at 57c at which price and time I felt  the price "mark up"    has somewhat run out of steam for bearish reasons that I am at no liberty to discuss here or now  but which we shall see being played out in next few weeks.  

Side note:  I saw that the price action  on Kepcorp today was not to my expectations and realised I had made an error of judgement in not taking the dividend  effect into account  ,  so I  dumped my kepcorp wrts bought yesterday ,  at 13.5c which is  0.1c above my buy price, just enough to pay for the brokerage fees.. feeling lucky to get out alive on this one. 

1 comment:

Henry Goh said...

Hi Bill,

I don't trade YOMA primarily because I have no platform to short the stock. However, I did some back-of-the-envelope estimates and I believe YOMA will visit $0.265 and then maybe even $0.13. Wonder if you have an opinion on these levels?