Tuesday, 8 May 2012

STi in wake of French/Greek revolt & Two charts from the Edge magazine : Yoma & Kepcorp

Over the weekend , I flipped through the latest edition of The Edge magazine ( for week may 7 -may13) and saw a chart analysis on Yoma by The Edge's technical analyst   who said  she had a confirmation of  a topping formation in Yoma and she expected Yoma , if it breaks down from 50c , ( which happened yesterday, Monday 7 may  )  to hit 27c after some  upward reactions at 40c, I reproduce her analysis here :

Recalling my 10 April post on "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment? "   , I had already expected Yoma 's breakdown  when it was still trading at 60-63c  ( see last post " Yoma in distribution? "    ) and to have a fall with weak upward reactions  or corrections at 50c, 46c, 42.5c,  36c and 29.5c like in chart below .

We shall watch with keen interest which  way or trajectory the Yoma operator is going to operate his stock - somewhere in between the Edge's 27c target trajectory and mine or something totally out of whack from  our both of our  expectations in which case we will have to adjust our  expectation trajectory accordingly. I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely ...  -- see below STi trajectory.

I also saw from the previous week's Edge magazine ( for  week of  april 23-29),   a chart analysis of Kepcorp when Kepcorp was trading at $11.55 . I also reproduce their analysis here, which seems to me somewhat overbullish at that moment ( see my analysis in 25 april  post  and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo 
where I mentioned insiders and smart money are selling like no tomorrow ( and to that effect , I  showed a contra statement of my dumping with Kepcorp@11.62   ) while the public and mainstream technical analysis or indicators are sucked into the  ecstasy and euphoria  over the  USD 4 bn contract  news,  strongly tempting technical analysts to  upgrade their 'technical' targets to $12 or more,  like below )

In the same issue I saw a more "muted" or balanced article on Kepcorp " Orders boom for Kepcorp but margins and upside muted " by Kang Wan Chern , I reproduce part of the article here, which somewhat corresponds more to my sombre or bearish  view at that time ( see my analysis in 25 april  post     and 13 april post "Kepcorp gets big mojo)   

In this mini crash following last weekend's French/Greek elections calling for more stimulus and less austerity, I expect Kepcorp to hit 10.40 after some upward reaction or corrections at 10.65 .  What happens after 10.40 is subject to general market conditions which I expect to be quite bad so I wouldn't be surprised if it hits below $10, if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. see updated STi & kepcorp trajectory below 

 In the wake of the french/ greek revolt against german austerity  and if the Greeks cannot form a coalition government by next week.. the STi may   take a slow and bumpy fall to 2833 ( updated to 2800 on 9 may ) with upward reactions at 2908 ,2879, 2857 .  The trajectory is not meant for trading the STi , they are used for aiding the trading of stocks & warrants ...This chart will be pasted inside STi roadmap 'tab' for short-term reference.


updated kepcorp chart 11 may 2012


Henry Goh said...

Nice call on Kepcorp. My own simplistic view is Kepcorp to reach $9.96 and then perhaps $9,34. Vested

Bill E said...

Thank you - I agree with you it will go below $10. my immediate target is $9.90 then i will decide whether to cross the bridge when i come to it.
Seen latest edge magazine for this weekend of 12-13 may ? - their tech analyst says they have just detected & confirmed a topping formation for kepcorp and is now predicting an initial target of $9.45 - not too far from your target of 9.34 .. so your're not alone - that is comforting thought if you're vested short ----anyway not to be outdone , i updated my kepcorp chart with more kiasu target of 9.60 right at the bottom of same post to "keep up" with the joneses if the greeks cannot form a coalition gov't by this week ..talking about herd behaviour ..lol ...

Henry Goh said...

Bill, I enjoy reading your insights on the market. I've only been trading for 2 plus years (recently) but was active during the 1987 crash so am really out of touch. I have discovered that trying to pick up some supplementary retirement income from the market is not so easy compared to those early times. Hope to follow your journey and perhaps, shamelessly, hitch small rides along the way. Old people don't run as fast you know.

Henry Goh said...
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