Recently, for the best part of June , I was on holiday without bringing my pc along and could not do any posting. I wanted to take a break from trading & financial affairs so the only tv i watched while holidaying was the euro 2012 soccer matches.
However, on 20 jun , a reader Mr Eric wrote me regarding my outlook for the STi so I took the opportunity to reply him at some hotel internet terminal.( see extract of email below in which i predicted sti will rally to 2900 after a downward reaction at 2860 -see last friday's STi chart below )
Given the widespread gloom leading to the euro summit last thurs/friday , if I had known it through the news media, I could never have predicted the euphoric outcome of the euro summit last friday that brought the STi to almost 2900 or forecast the fomc's non-commitment to QE3 "leading" to the mini-crash or reaction right after STi hits 2860.
However , by hook or by fluke , the STi behaved exactly as i "predicted" in my email to Eric and you can have my word that is the only email regarding STi outlook that I wrote throughout that holidays - at any rate I don't normally do forecast on the market outlook in emails.
So I sometimes wonder if it is better to analyse the charts without any access to any news like when u are on a holiday ( or your tv or internet is down ) as i suspect the newsflow are intentionally fed by the big boys to mainstream media to create panic or euphoria in the market ( so that they can sell into the euphoria or buy into the panic in large volume ) which tends to create an intended wrong bias in our analysis of the chart.
anyway the moment I returned home from holidays last friday morning before Frau Merkel finally gave in to Italian & Spanish demands ( after Italy beat Germany 2:1 in the semis to meet Spain in the eurofinals) , I bought 200 lots of kepcorp call wrts at average price of about 9.7c , expecting to cash out into the euphoria of the euro summit first thing this Monday morning in which I expect a Sti gap up on open but may suffer a downward reaction afterwards.
On Wed, Jun 20, 2012 at 2:15 AM, Eric wrote:
Hi Bill,Thanks for taking your time to reply to my email.I was just a little unsure if the rally was sustainable given the relatively lower volume for the past few trading days. Your comments were duly noted, and I shall stay with the momentum.Thank you once again.Regards
Hi Eric,
actually i am quite bullish in short term .. a nice bottom was formed on 4 jun ..the breakdown of trend line on 1 jun was a false break n reversed ..which means the current uptrend is strong.sti should hit 2900 in short term with short reaction at 2860.
regardsBill
On Mon, Jun 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM, Eric wrote:
Hi bill,Just like to get your thoughts (if possible) on the STi.Would you consider the current STI lvl as a dead cat bounce senario or a change of trend kinda situation. The uptrend trendline on Sti was breached on 1st June and eventually price got back above the trendline by 15June. What is your bias?Many Thanks and appreicate your kind sharing to the public.RegardsEric
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