Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Short Squeeze on Spanish victory or QE3 ? : Kepcorp on a fierce rally

Now for the hindsight on the "supporting" fundamentals :

6 posts ago on 31 may " riding on yoma rights ",in the last para, I stated a suggestion ( which i got from some economist on the web )  that Spain might be the final battleground to save the euro. last friday Germany lost  2-1 to Italy in the semis -- against market expectations or as a result Merkel finally gave in to Italian demands for direct bank recapitalisation ..  and yesterday Spain trounced Italy 4-0  to win the euro 2012 finals .. so it appears the finals battleground was won by Spain after all . ... a pyschic octopus oracle by the name of Paul  in some German acquarium might have predicted all this( click to see video )  -- had he still been alive , life would have been much simpler ... and then we had the weak US data to fan QE3 hopes...

 so much for  fuzzy "fundamentals" .... Now for the action on technicals:.

Monday's market behaviour was markedly different from responses to previous euro summits. Usually there is a fierce sell-down  into the brief moment of euphoria upon conclusion of each summit.

This time it was different.  At morning open , the STi hit 2900 and reacted down as I expected .. However the reaction this time round was relatively muted.  

At about 1419 hrs,  when kepcorp hit about 10.62  ,  I thought the euphoria was over and  sold at 12.3c  my 200 kepcorp wrts bought on last friday at 9.7c  ..

 However at about 1500 hrs, I saw that the  downward reaction I had expected on the STi  had fizzled out and reversed into upward strength ...when the STi surged past  my 2900 barrier ,  immediately I realised my prognosis for a strong downward reaction  for sti at 2900 was terribly wrong.. 

Suspecting a short squeeze on the deluge of shorts by the big boys that accompanied the widespread gloom leading to the euro summit last friday  ,  I entered long again on my Kepcorp call wrt .. at a higher price that I sold  barely an hour earlier .. 400 lots at 12.5c  .. see below orderbook.  

Today I was rewarded for my guts to re-enter at a higher price barely an hour after my exit yesterday when i realised my prognosis of a strong reaction was wrong.  It went up to close at 14.4c today ... this time round , I will be mindful not to sell my kepcorp wrts until kepcorp gets pass $11--  until the big  & small boys who betted  the farm &  shorted big time  into this euro summit get their asses completely burnt.

Capitaland target  2.88 - 2.90 

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