General picture : STi
3 post ago, in a post dated 19 sept ( titled : Global QE unlimited :last tango in pennies- click here ) i posted a chart for STi , the only STi chart since , expecting this QE3 rally to suffer a reaction at 3109. see that old chart with "as is" trajectory below .. last friday , our STi closed exactly at 3107 after hitting a high of 3110...we will see what reaction this week will bring ..( see latest update from Mr Market at post-mortem section at the bottom of this post )
Catching a falling knife ? : Noble
two post ago or about 2 weeks ago ( click here ) , I predicted , albeit with low confidence, that Noble will fall from 1.35 to 1.28 to have a bounce there .. 3 trading days ago ( thurs) Noble came crashing like a falling knife to 1.28 and had a rebound on thurs, fri . ( see below ) as xx futures hit a bottom at 1500.
on wed, like clockwork , Noble hit my reaction floor at 1.28 like a falling knife( see circled long red candle in second chart below ) , at a point where i would be covering my shorts, and bounce.
I reproduce my old Noble chart here with its "as is " trajectory .. and today's Noble chart for comparison..
above : old Noble chart on 21 sept with its "as is " trajectory ( click here for old post )
Unfinished reactions ? : First Resources
small breakouts , anyone ? - Skyone
Short-term peaks ? : Yoma , Interra , Suntec
Last few days , many readers have email me regarding the status of Yoma given its relentless run to date. Actually I have an internal short term btarget of 57c for this run which i did not publish for fear of encountering a strong reaction at 53c for which readers might blame me for dragging them through. . As such I was only too happy to let my published pumping trajectory end at 53c.
I had sold 1/3 of my Yoma tues at 54.5c leaving the rest to ride to thurs when i sold another 1/3 thurs at 57.5c . the rest I will wait & see .
above -- Yoma old chart dated 25 sept with "as is" pumping trajectory
above : Yoma chart today fri
Other Short-term peaks : Interra , Suntec
Entrapment at the toxic bottom ? : Oceanus
There being not many bottoms left around
to pick in this QE3 environment , my stock scans turned to scrapping the
bottom of the SGX barrel , the most toxic of toxic pennies that have not yet
rallied. These pennies, mostly 'S' chips or 'S-like' chips , had suffered
many a bad reputation in the past for destroying shareholder value with company
management siphoning off company assets into private pockets with such
religious fanatical zeal , that many fundamental analysts with a
reputation to protect are afraid to cover them , leaving the
cheerleading job to selected "technical analysts" usually
engaged on contract basis by stock operators to guide the public to buy
and sell at precisely the wrong time.. in other words, to shepherd the public
into the operator's slaughter house.
Now , it so happens on wed 3 oct , 20 mins before market close , DJ News wire
threw the restless public a little bone to chew ( maybe from the Oceanus
operator, maybe not ) - a technical analysis report from a local
broking house ( I here replace name of the broking house with xxx
brokerage in order not to insinuate anyone ) tipping for a buy on
Oceanus with target 7c.
I reproduce that report here :
DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07
Target - xxx brokerage 03 Oct 2012 16:41
0841 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Charts tip
Oceanus (579.SG) as a Technical Buy with S$0.07 target, xxx brokerage technical
analysis says. "The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger
band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to
form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be
in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at
S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX.
(leslie.shaffer@dowjones.com)
I have no clue on what Oceanus does - and whether its a good company with good
governance or a typical toxic S-chip company or a hybrid somewhere inbetween
..and I don't really care .
Curiousity tickles the cat, so a little check into Oceanus website told
me that it deals with farming & distribution of abalone and other
sea creatures eg. sea cucumber , lobster ,crayfish as well. They even
opened ah yat seafood restaurant outlets.
Further checks on the internet told me this company can destroy shareholder
value through impairment of assets, like declaring its abalone
crop compromised by some disease or some environmental hazards.
Most auditors are not trained to tell a healthy live abalone from a sick one, or
a plastic one , let alone in murky bubbly waters of an abalone farm . so
this type of business could potentially be an easy platform for fishing in
troubled waters - 混水摸(鲍) 鱼.
the famous cases of sinoforest, guangzhou industrial forestry biotech readily
spring to mind where their major core bio-assets are vaporware - can be made to
appear or disappear at the snap of the CEO's fingers, depending on status of
money transfer from your account to their accounts.
From the share price performance in the last 3 years ( dropping from 47c to 5c
now ) , oceanus abalone must never have felt sicker ..of late,
I thought that maybe this year, just maybe , ( not that
I know anything about oceanus or the abalone business or ever having eaten one
before ) that they might just want to declare a healthy, bumper abalone
crop just to pump the share price in this favorable QE3 environment..so that
some directors can unload their shares .. any pumping story to suck in the
public will do -- myanmese abalones , angry abalones , iCloud abalones, android
abalones, organic genetically modified abalones - whatever.
anyway I checked on insider trades in oceanus , there was an open
market sales by one director Yu de hua of 14,549,000 shares at 5c-5.1c
from 7 to 27 sept . and there was a business dispute between Yu dehua and
Dr Ng cher chew resulting in transfer of 446,317,492 shares from Dr Ng to Yu Dehua who appears to be in a dumping mood , after being removed from his CEO post recently - i don't know what to make of all these 'insider trades' &
'disputes' but i wouldn't want to get in the way of share dumping by an ex- ceo who knows better than anyone else the true worth of his ex-company .
I don't know if this is just coincidence or orchestrated , just as
Oceanus appeared in the top volume chart on wed , the xxx broker report was released by DJ news wire just 20 mins into market close with
a 7c target inducing the public to buy .
the following thurs morning , Oceanus appeared in top vol chart again
sucking in punters in the first hour only to find strong unloading by operator
throughout the day & also through friday with sizeable buy queues
of 10,000 lots and many 'buys' of 300 lots each.
On fri/sat /sunday , feeling bad about Oceanus
& how some of my readers could have bought oceanus based on the xxx
broker report posted , I sent out the following warning note to
readers who emailed me previously :
" i think oceanus operator is probably trying to entrap the public
by creating false activity ( appearing in top vol chart since wed) and
through timely release of technical analysis reports to
induce public to buy oceanus at 5.1-5.3 thinking it will go 7c then
flush the stock down to 4.5c next week to cause a force-sell or cut loss
from the public so that the operator can cover his shorts at 4.5-4.7. pse do not share this info with anyone else as this
is just only my half-baked private speculation opinion ...disclaimer applies..
I know nothing about oceanus' business or the intentions of their
operators or even if they exist at all - so they could be a figment of my
bad imagination ".
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POST-MORTEM ANALYSIS : what happens to market after above post dated 7 oct
below is evaluation of clockwork precision : comparision of "as is" predicted trajectory of recent charts with realization in latest charts as events unfold after 7 oct
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update on oceanus -- 10 oct 2012
comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is" trajectory( top) with latest chart 10 oct ( bottom) ..
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Skyone - comparing old chart 5 oct with "as is" trajectory( top chart ) and new chart 10 oct 2012 ( bottom ) :
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Yoma - compare top chart prediction of a peak 5 oct vs bottom chart 12 oct realisation
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Interra - comparing top chart 5 oct prediction of a peak vs bottom chart realization 12 oct
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STi - compare top chart from 19 sept post="global QE unlimited -last tango in pennies ( click here for post ) with "as is " trajectory vs today's chart ( bottom )
Thanks~
