Monday, 22 October 2012

Strong & weak stocks in a volatile market : Yoma, Interra, Yanlord, Noble , oceanus ( with later updates on Dukang )

Last week after my yanlord post indicating a breakout to 1.30 to have a reaction down then possibly 1.33 afterwards , a reader by name of James wrote me regarding a possible entry into Yanlord.  

Because I knew the dow was near an important peak, expecting a strong down reaction from the dow coming anytime, I told him to wait ( see my email to him below on the 18 oct  last thurs where i told him to wait for an impending  severe dow reaction to enter yanlord at 1.245) .  

That turns out to be a good call , not quite,  because though the dow did hit my peak and reversed,  it did not crash on thurs nite as i expected but come friday nite the dow did crashed about 200 pts and yanlord crashed from 1.295 when James wrote me to 1.255 today. 

on thurs nite,  in line with my expectation of an impending dow crash, i also told another  reader Nazeril to expect some selling of Noble at 1.37 come  friday morning  .. see below mail . Noble open at 1.37 on friday and came crashing to 1.345 today.

Actually i think the dow still has another 190 pts to fall from last friday close , though it may come in smaller bites I won't be chasing stocks at this moment.. 

Email with James on  Yanlord

Bill E           Oct 18 (4 days ago)
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to james

Hi James ,

  i dun like to buy on breakouts

 i just hope that the reaction( at 1.30  -see chart ) will bring  it down for me 
to enter lower - for this we need a bad dow nite , 
 tonite the dow should shoot up 40-50 pts to an important peak then 
react down  - i hope the reaction will be so severe  that we get a chance
 to enter cheap  maybe at 1.245  - 
that's my plan but a plan is a plan , may not pan out.  
so  patience is key ..

james                         Oct 18 (4 days ago) 
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to me

Hi Bill
I see I see.. ok I shall wait n see how it pans out!  Thanks~

*****************************************************************Email with Nazeril on Noble peak

Nazeril               Oct 18 (4 days ago)  
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to me
Hi Bill, 

Could I still seek some advice from u? 
Will the trend for noble and olam be bearish or bull? 

Thanks for ur advice and hope to continue reading ur blog. 

Best Regards

Sent from my iPhone
Bill E       Oct 18 (4 days ago)
Oct 18 (4 days ago)

to Nazeril

short term , noble may face some selling pressure at 1.37

   Yoma & Interra 

Alas, as a result of my general bearishness, I  made an overly bearish  call regarding the depth of correction to  yoma and interra after correctly pointing out the peaks at 57c and 45c respectively  - they both corrected halfway to my reaction  targets and turned up strong thurs & today  -- my apologies for the missed opportunities to go long.

Fortunately, yoma and interra are not shortable stocks, so I guess none of my readers lost any money from that  recent call  if they had sold at the 57 & 45 peaks respectively following my post or  do nothing afterwards..what they lost are missed opportunities to go long , i hope........

 if anyone made any losses on shorting yoma or interra  , pse email me..actually I would be interested in any shorting facilities for these 2 stocks ... 

At current moment , it appears that yoma and interra are the two hottest stock on the sgx .. I will study carefully these 2 stocks before making anymore  calls..   a stock that rises 6% in response to a 200 pt dow crash must have swallowed some big cans of  spinach or red bull.

Oceanus  - what ever happened to this toxic penny ?
One stock which i cannot be too bearish over is Oceanus.

Ever since my 7 oct  post( click here ) ,where  I alerted readers to  entrapment activity by the operator to induce the public to buy at 5.3c using top volume churning and TA analyst reports( for samples,  see below in blue  )  with 7c targets to suck in the public to buy ,  Oceanus has been on an inexorable downward trajectory ever since, dropping from 5.3c to 3.7c today .
03 Oct 2012 16:41
DJ MARKET TALK: Charts Tip Oceanus At Buy, S$0.07 Target - xxx brokerage house
0841 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Charts tip Oceanus (579.SG) as a Technical Buy with S$0.07 target, xxx brokerage house technical analysis says. "The stock could potentially break above its mid Bollinger band with a base support at S$0.05. The Stochastics indicator looks poised to form a bullish crossover and bullish divergences at its MACD indicator could be in play." It tips placing stops below S$0.045. The stock is up 2.0% at S$0.052 in volume of more than 3% of shares changing hands on the SGX. (
 today it hit 3.7c , my internal ultimate downfall  target..though I did put one intermediate downfall target  at 4.5 recently but it rested there for only 3 days( see chart below)  before it  got busted like a crushed coke can under a roller truck ,    so I still would be afraid to buy or fish in this very toxic bottom of the SGX ocean  .. why ?

because it  appears the ex-ceo Yu Dehua has some 300m +shares to dump after getting the divorce letter from Dr Ng. and I  guess I would not want to get in his way.

where would oceanus stop dropping - I don't want to speculate either ..  because the supply demand equation is clearly in the hands of Mr Yu dehua .. with 300+m shares to dump, he is clearly the 800 pound gorilla in the room together with Dr Ng. ...  and when 2 gorillas get into a real fight , you won't want to stand in their way .. As ex-ceo of oceanus, I am sure he knows the true worth of his company better than any one else  .. if he the  big insider is selling , why should the little outsiders be buying  ? and I am not sure this 800 pound gorilla  from S-chip land would be consulting my technical targets  when he dumps ... this is probably a case where true fundamentals triumphs over technicals.

anyway below are the 2 charts , one from my 5 oct post calling for an entrapment to this 'toxic' penny and today's chart.

Dukang - top chart  updated 24 oct ,  bottom chart updated 23 oct before market close has a computation error -sorry 


Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

May I know the percentage of Technical analysis you use in your trading and how much in Fundamental?

Also, how do you get those 'insider' news of whats happening in the companies? Like Oceanus, the divorce paper etc. Mind sharing those sources and their reliability?


Anonymous said...

I am just curious, hope you dont mind.

Just another fellow trader hoping to learn the art of swing trading.

Bill E said...

you can get "insider trades" from a few websites eg.

TA vs FA - my basic approach is chart reading , FA & news is just to confirm my chart reading ... i use news in a different way from most analysts - i use them as my contrarian indicators . and I do my own fundamental analysis different from other fundamental analysts also... I would be bullish when most fundamental or technical analysts are bearish.. because fundamental analysts rely on data that are usually already outdated or intentionally leaked out by the big boys to make them feel bearish .

Bill E said...

i mean 'fundamental' data are usually released by the big boys to make the analysts feel bearish or bullish at precisely the wrong time .

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill,

Can include Ausgroup ,,,,Dukang,,,THBEV,,,,,Nam Cheong in yr analysis......all these stock always active in the top volume ....Tks


Bill E said...

Hi ,

Actually i think the dow still has another 190 pts to fall from last friday close , but it may come in small bites I won't be chasing stocks at this moment..

Bill E said...

anyway , i just added an item on Dukang in this post - suggests profit taking

Anonymous said...

Just bought into Yanlord 1.235. Hope it will cheong

Bill E said...

updated my dukang chart - got some computational error in my previous chart

Bill E said...

outlook tonite : Dow should be green tonite , Nymex crude oil hit a good short term bottom at 84.90 last nite so should rise tonite.

Bill E said...

i think 2 nights ago, oil & the dow plunged probably in anticipation of US unemployment data tonite at8 pm SG time, which is probably bad .

daniel said...

Hi Bill, wondering if you have any additional thoughts on yanlord after last 2 days price action.

Do u think its still possible for it to break the 1.30 -1.31 ceiling?


Ray said...

Hi Bill, didn't see any updates for Midas.

Any clues where it is heading?

Bill E said...

as predicted 4 comments above yesterday at about 1pm , last nite ( 25 oct) the dow closed green : up 26 pts and nymex crude closed up at usd 86.