Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Rebound or Dead Cat bounce ? : STi to retest 2826 , Kepcorp may test 10.50, Yoma finally announces cum-rights & operator repumps Yoma at 38.5c to support it.

At the start of the recent mini-crash after the French/greek elections 3 weeks ago, I predicted a bottom for that leg of the crash for the Sti at 2799. In the end , it went down to 2759, a 40 pt under-estimation on my part so there is some more fine-tuning work to do here .  This rebound ( or dead cat bounce which many analysts had called this bounce  )  should take STi to 2826  & then maybe 2877( a long shot ? ) .. failing which we may see another bout of  plunging .. so let's watch closely for any sign of weakness .  

In the last post  3weeks ago , I mentioned "  I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely "... it subsequently sank to a bottom of 35c which was close  to my second last reaction levels of 36c..( see below chart ) 

Now that the market has found a temporary bottom , true to form, today the Yoma operator finally decided to exploit this window of opportunity   ( which may not last )   to do a strong re-pumping from 38.5c  to 46c all on one day  - see super-long green candle in chart above -  in a superfast markup ( with just a 1m share buy at 39c at 9.20am & 1m share buy at 41c at 9.52am  - leading one to  wonder if these transactions are anything but ...   )  to support the announcement of cum-rights issue( ex-date 4 June which is next Monday ) ( sorry , i got  the ex-date wrong, it is 31 May ,  record date is 4 Jun so the rights will be traded next week  )   

 I guess  the operator may further pump it to 50c  or more in another superfast mark-up( maybe towards friday close  if market sentiment is any good or during the ex-right period to ex-right equivalent price of  38.4c or more  )   to persuade the public to buy more rights & subscribe to the rights  at 24c   .. of course this could be a long shot in this difficult environment   & I could be wrong here .. so let's watch closely.

 If yoma maintains current price of 45c , ex-right yoma price would be 35.6c on Monday assuming market sentiment remains constant  which may be able to persuade people to fork out 24c to subscribe...  if  operator had allowed yoma to plunge to 29.5 level ( see last post's chart below  ) ,  the ex-right price would be 27c which is too close for comfort for rights subscribers in this volatile environment. 

but of course buyers beware , once the rights are exercised by the public and 24c is collected from the public , the operator may have no strong incentive to support yoma share price anymore for some time to come  for a variety of reasons too complicated to discuss here and now  ....

 ... Kepcorp 's recent crash to bottom  exceeded  my first crash target of $9.90 in last post ( see below ) by 10c and 20c short of my over-pessimistic  final target of $9.60.   may hit 10.40-50 in this rebound ( or dead cat bounce  ? ) .. so cross fingers  & watch closely for any sign of weakness..

the Edge chart analysis on Kepcorp  

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