Thursday, 31 May 2012

Riding on Yoma rights : a quick punt on a quick pump

 See 2 posts or 3 weeks  ago, while  yoma was plummeting on its way from 63c to its eventual 35c bottom ,   I mentioned  "I suspect the operator may be tempted to attempt re-pumping Yoma at 38/39c  but I doubt he  can overcome the  bearishness in the general market . .. so let's watch closely .."   

 Eventually it hit a bottom of 35c and then hover around a basing of  38/39c for a few days ( see chart below )  when the general market found a temporary bottom in the recent crash following the recent failed greek elections. 

Admittedly I was not monitoring yoma in the recent crash post french-greek election as I was preoccupied with playing the  euro & HSi  ,  .. in fact i had removed yoma from my stock watchlist and populated it with hsi wrts about 2 weeks after I dumped my yoma shares , almost at its peak at 61c - see 10 April post "Dumping Yoma - the perfect ecstasy moment"  and  also 26 april post "Yoma in distribution?"

So when yoma declared its cum-rights on tues,  I was totally unaware ..   it was only after yoma rose 7c to 46c that day, thrusting it to the top 20-%-gainers list  that I took notice of its cum-rights declaration..  

Immediately , I added yoma back to my watch list & gave it the front-row seat it deserves ..

But I did not want to give chase after a 7c rise  .. as i  do not believe in chasing an extended move . I needed a good entry & patience is the name of this game..

However I was cognizant or mindful  of  the operator's  determination to pump or markup the stock  skyhigh for a successful rights issue  despite volatile market conditions ..and I am more than happy to ride along .

To that effect, in the  last post  ,  I suggested that yoma operator may push Yoma to 50c or more .. despite volatile market conditions  as depicted in my yoma chart with my predicted annotations from that post  shown below :

Yesterday Yoma retraced 4c to close at 41c ( see  low vol last  red candle in bottom most chart ), after the HSi  crashed 2%,  giving me a foretaste of the dow nite to come.   and plunged the dow did , plummeting some 1.2% last nite.

This morning was ex-rights date for yoma -- meaning those who bought yoma from today onwards will not be given the rights ..but can buy it on open market starting next week (7 Jun 9am) til 15 Jun 5pm    if so desired.

 But i was unaware of this before market opens , thinking ex-date was 4 june next monday.

So when yoma opened this morning at 33.5c ( yesterday close was 41c ) , I was initially taken by surprise but not many seconds passed before i noticed that Yoma had graduated, changing its tag from  "CR" to "XR"  ( see watchlist below )   -- so yoma had gone ex-rights  today . , hence the downward adjustment in price from yesterday's close of 41c.

Luckily for me , on my yoma chart , yoma price was adjusted for this XR event and i noticed it opened exactly at yesterday's close.( see bottom most chart )

This morning , I noticed the hsi will open gap down near  temporary demand & gold was turning up & the euro/usd had already hit my temporary demand at 1.237 and then enjoying a short-covering bounce( or dead cat bounce ? )  to prepare for an eventual next short-term 1.220 then 1.200  for eur/usd over next few days(weeks?) .

To this end , I  had shorted the euro last nite on a very late entry at 1.240 & took one  third  profits at 1.237- a reaction level , hoping to carry the rest of shorts  to 1.230 (  on fri,  I took another one third profits here @ 1.230 -  another reaction level  and  the remaining third was stopped out at 1.243  - updated 2 june  )   then 1.220 then 1.200 and eventually to parity ...  ( see eur/usd ladder below )  ... 

So with the "dead cat bounce "  tailwind on my back, when i noticed yoma price started turning up again a few minutes after open  ,  I took 300 lots at market at average price of  34.5c.  It eventually closed at 40c, after hitting a high of 41c ..( see below)  

Below , I show 2 yoma charts - the first one was my annotated chart in tues post depicting my predicted trajectory for yoma price , the other is the chart of actual yoma price adjusted for ex-rights in today's chart  ..  The two trajectories look like spitting images of one another if one were to look at it with reference to the corresponding orange horizontal lines on the 2 charts ...  

tuesday chart above with prediction trajectory upon cum rights declaration

today's( thurs)  yoma chart below with price adjustment for ex-rights, note similarity with above chart  between predicted & actual trajectory.- make reference to corresponding horizontal orange lines between the 2 charts.

I am mindful that the purpose behind all these pumping action is to persuade existing entitled holders of rights to subscribe for rightshares( entitled & excess )   and to attract buyers for yoma rights that will be offered on open market next week starting7 jun & ending 15 Jun 5pm  with the view to their eventual  exercise or subscription at 24c on 22 jun 5pm .. 

after that , the operator may have no strong incentive  to support yoma stock price anymore for some time to come  so I will try to evacuate myself , quietly head for the fire exit  before the clock strikes twelve  and not be left holding the  baby & bath water ..

at any rate, we have the Greek elections on 17 June  and there is no telling what the Greeks will do in this endless game of chicken , blackmail , trojan horses  ...  with a messy divorce of epic proportions on the cards  & Spain as the final battleground to decide the fate of the euro,  the recent market crash has yet to run its course , the nite is long &  the road ahead  bumpy so it is best to err on the side of caution if you are on a risk-on trade .

Disclaimer :  Of course the above is just my private hypothesis for my private consumption & not yours  and I could be wrong .. so  caveat emptor..

** updated 2 jun --  some friends have asked me for details of the rights offer , **disclaimer - I bear no responsibility for any errors of mistaken or omitted facts or interpretation below, so read at your own risk n do your own diligence  :


meaning for every 5 shares you bought  before 31 may  , they will give you  4 rights & for each right , you will have to pay 24c to get a new yoma share( called rightshare) by 22 jun 5pm .

 So if  you have 10 lots of yoma before XR (31 may), you will be getting for free  8k rights for which you will have to pay 24c x8k = $1.92 k  to convert your right shares into 8 lots of new yoma shares by 22 june 5pm.

 if you got rights thanks to your entitlement  and not intending to pay 24c  per share to convert them into new yoma shares , you should sell the rights into the market when they start trading on 7 jun on the SGX exchange otherwise they become worthless when the trading of rights stops on 15 June 5 pm and you still don't want to convert  by 22 June 5pm..

If you want to apply for  free excess rights( this is available  to people who held at least one yoma share before 31 may and if there is net left over of rights from net under-subscription  as of  22 jun 5pm ) & convert them to shares , you can also fill in the form sent to you  and submit with payment ( 24c per excess right applied for ) by 22 June 5pm or through electronic means(ATM) stated below.

Important Dates and Times
Entitled Shareholders and Purchasers should take note of the following important dates and
times in respect of the Rights Issue:
Despatch of Offer Information Statement : 7 June 2012
(together with forms) to Entitled Shareholders
Commencement of trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 7June 2012 from 9.00 a.m.
Last date and time for splitting Rights : 12 June 2012
Last date and time for trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 15 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
Last date and time for acceptance of and : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
payment for Rights Shares (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Last date and time for acceptance of and : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
payment for Rights Shares by renounces (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Last date and time for application and payment : 22 June 2012 at 5.00 p.m.
for excess Rights Shares (9.30 p.m. for Electronic
Expected date for issuance of Rights Shares : 29 June 2012
Expected date for crediting of Rights Shares : 29 June 2012
Expected date for refund of unsuccessful : 2 July 2012
applications (if made through CDP)
Expected date for the listing and : 2 July 2012 from 9.00 a.m.
commencement of trading of Rights Shares

1. DBS Bank Ltd. (including POSB)
2. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited
3. United Overseas Bank Limited and its subsidiary, Far Eastern Bank Limited

The Company has obtained a written irrevocable
undertaking from the Undertaking Shareholder to, inter
alia, subscribe and/or procure subscriptions for (a) his
pro rata entitlements to 211,148,414 Rights Shares
(direct and indirect) under the Rights Issue; and (b) up to
168,018,254 of the balance of the Rights Shares which
are not subscribed or applied for by Entitled
Shareholders other than himself, which will amount to


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