Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Global QE Unlimited : last tango in pennies ? - GMG , Midas ( with Outlook for week ahead updated 23 sept at bottom of post )

Ever since  I urged  "Buy, buy, buy before QE3 announcement  3 posts ago (  "Ezion rally on ECB bond buying & QE3 hopes" -  click here to see last comment in that comments section  ) & 2 posts ago ( click here for : "front running & fading QE3... " ) , thanks to a stronger than expected QE3 announcement a few days later , most stock operators were caught by surprise by the aggressiveness of  Bernanke which then led to a big gap up in the STi  the very next morning after Bernanke announced QE3 unlimited .

A fierce rally ensued for many second  liners & pennies . Many pennies that suffered many bad reputations in their past lives and left for dead for years suddenly woke up from their long slumber , rose from the SGX graveyard like zombies to seduce  the public once more  with new hastily fabricated growth stories  ( eg.   Oceanus, GMG, Raffles education, otto marine etc etc the list is endless  ) . 

As a result, most of our predictions  made in our recent posts before QE3 -click here were realized in less than 4 trading days post QE3  ie. price targets were hit or exceeded and now undergoing some reactions .  Heavy supply at many reactions seem well absorbed for selected secondliners & pennies ..while blue chips were off recent highs &  quite reluctant to participate or strike new heights.

It is perhaps time to provide further updates in the outlook towards Nov 6  & review the fate of predictions made in recent posts( by comparing predictions in annotated old charts from old posts and latest updated chart side by side  - click on the stock names in orange below to see old posts carrying the predictions )  . We divide the predictions into  :

(i)  predictions that took 1-2 days to hit target & reacted south  ( Ezion@1.27   , Oil @98, Dyna-mac at 54c  )   

(ii)  predictions that took 3-4  days to hit target & reacted south ( Midas@42Yoma @ 44

(iii)  predictions that missed target  so far ( Genting SP missed by 2c , tigerair has not take-off the runway at all  )  ..

(iv) predictions that were happily over-exceeded in swing targets thanks to a stronger than expected QE3 package ( STi  ,  Gold ) or  take-overs ( Sakari, F&N )  

(v) predictions of bottoming of stocks    : bottoming of Wilmar at $3 , the fierce rally of commodity stocks ( noble, olam, sakari  ) ,  oil stocks ( Dyna-mac bounce at 48  ) and  bottoming of Genting SP ,  after they all hit significant  swing reaction bottoms.

Outlook for next few weeks : 

As the STi approaches  3109 - 3133 , there will be a reaction south . Due to QE3 unlimited , it may be a weak reaction well absorbed  but many blue chips seem reluctant to participate in this QE3 rally so far,  leaving the dance floor  to second liners & pennies. So  some pennies may take a chance to rally before that ....or they  may not , to dance their last tango in a hurry , hopefully completed before the music stops for everyone... 

Below Outlook Updated 23 sept 2012  : 

Difficult week  ahead to predict :  Global Equity Indices look tired requiring a pause for recharging  amidst  window dressing for selected stocks that have done really well 

The BlueChip STi index, HSi & Dow look tired and may fall slightly beginning of week or go sideways to do some recharging while window dressing may appear towards end of next week to prop up selected stocks that have done really well ... as there are  many permutations of possibilities in space and time  , it is rather difficult to predict for the week ahead, but just for kicks, I will try some low-confidence calls here   , not for you to follow ,caveat emptor  .



Anonymous said...

Midas looks weak today. 42-42.5 huge hurdle to cross. You loaded?

Anonymous said...

Did you buy GMG or Midas?

cymon said...

Midas RSI close to overbought. Did you load up Midas and GMG?

Bill E said...

You are right , Midas now suffering some reactions at 42-43c.. thanks to bad data from china this morning .

we are now entering a reaction zone from 42c to 44c .. sorry I did not draw that zone in this post ,

u can see the reaction zone as an ellipse in the original midas post in

or directly here

maybe i just stick the old midas chart inside this post also.

do expect a bumpy ride inside the zone .. think we should eventually clear the zone to see 45c.. at least we penetrated it twice to 43c so there is some absorption of supply.

Did I loaded on Midas ?

well, I started buying from 37-39c on 7 sept see comment in post at


Bill E said...
Hi Vic ,

if your mouse is itchy, can try Midas , wait for the supply at 39c to be absorbed first , next target 42c then we'll see.


9 September 2012 17:31

or direct link is

then I sold some at 41c before it reacted south

then bought more at 40.5c on tues ,

then sold some at 42.5 yesterday wed, keeping the rest for 44-45c to dump .

Sorry I don't do RSI or overbought/oversold indicators .. don't believe in these stuff.

Bill E said...

I have not touched GMG yet, waiting for reaction to bottom out first ...

Unknown said...

Hi Bill

You memtion in your comment above.."time to provide further update in the outlook towards Nov 6"
Any specific reason for this date 6? Any major event for this date or what? Thanks
Can pls share with us.
And regretably, i did not buy Midas at 39c as i was up to the nose currently on Cordlife and chinaMinzhong and 2 others.
Today, i have take some off the table, so perhap i would like to know whether Midas at current px is still a buy?
I believe tonite dow will be down, so tomolo would be a good time to pick up this one.What do you say?


Bill E said...

if i dun recall wrongly , Nov 6 is date for election of US president n also US congress

Anonymous said...

GMG looks very interesting. looks like play for next week.

Anonymous said...

Congrats Bill,

market plunged this morning as you predicted yesterday.


Anonymous said...

GMG finally moved.. thanks for your analysis bill!