Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Front-running & fading QE3 announcement on 13 Sept : Ezion , Midas , Genting SP, STi

Post DNC, with Obamaism all the rage, with Romney & tea party all but toast, an Obama victory all but certain coupled with a clean sweep of the house on Nov 6 thus paving way for a half trillion dollar fiscal stimulus boost after that , so the skies looking bright  to Nov 6 .. albeit with occasional dark clouds along the way..so caveat emptor .. 

 & with bad employment data from last friday plus  a sagging europe & a hard-landing china , that gives Bernanke a free hand  to push his favorite drug -  QE3 at coming fomc on Thurs 13 sept  , to inflate Obama  to a new high, to reflate the world economy  and not least to deflate Romney.

With China landing hard with 18th party congress in Oct , we see big fiscal stimulus programs in the works - plans " for  25 rail projects & construction of 2000 kilometers of highways in the country."    plus more stimulus announcements to follow ..though some would argue most of the stimulus money would end up in pockets of corrupt officials which would then be siphoned out of the country & into casinos overseas for washing ... so yummmy yummmy Genting SP,  here we come ... give us a special table & special room.. no cctv please because we are all chinese , disciples from ocean eleven - we can headfake your cameras at every turn - so nobody reports any profits nor pays any  taxes   .. after a good wash,  let's give each other a high five ..which  leaves nothing for your stock price .

In Europe,  the hole is getting deeper by the day with no resolution in sight.  But the near term happy event is the German constitutional court ruling on the 500bn euro ESM bailout fund which is expected to pass on wed without hiccup ( cross fingers )  which will then lead to Spain asking for a bailout .. 

On thurs night we may get a temporary burst of euphoria in the Dow with announcement of QE3 which may be followed by a gap up in the STi on Friday morning into which we can start taking some profits off the table in a reactionary move... 

 of course since this QE3 announcement is highly anticipated & everyone's front-running it   (  with gold racing to a 1750 peak , DX to a 70.80 bottom ) , so we may not  have a gap up..  while some may even consider selling  before thurs 5pm before Bernanke speaks ... 

 So what's the QE3 playbook ?  here are some suggestions following  discussions in last post on 6 sept  ( click here to see comments section esp the last comment  )  but of course  caveat emptor , Bernanke may just keep mum again then we have a gap down which however is highly unlikely given Bernanke would not want to disappoint market expectations  this time round ( given the considerations of the first 2 paras of this post ) unlike Jackson Hole :

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