This week we will witness the election of 2 presidents from the 2 biggest economies of the world .. US & China. So this week , we take a break, instead of picking stocks , we pick presidents.
On Nov 6 , we have the US presidential elections, and on Nov 8 , the Chinese starts its 18th party congress culminating in the election of their next CCP leader, Xi JinPing.
In the US, despite unfavorable unemployment data , and despite what the opinion polls like above says about the election results being a close call, a cliff hanger , nail bitter or in dead heat ( click here) , my bet is that Obama will be re-elected convincingly to a second term , for reasons of favorable demographics ( seniors , uninsured , students , blacks, hispanics , women , sufferers of hurricane Sandy, lovers of Big bird , auto-workers in Detroit, fans of Bruce Springsteen, and last but not least the 70% of americans who think they belong to the " 47% victimized camp " blackmarked by Mitt Romney..
Into this election, I think the dark clouds over the fiscal cliff problem may be lifted momentarily leading to a very small very short election rally of sorts in the Dow before a big reversal post elections , when the electorate votes in a more pro-Democrat congress ( Senate and lower house ) and votes out the tea-party to resolve the grid-lock in Washington and to approve a grand bargain..hopefully ..
In China, every time there is a party congress, the CCP will prop up the Chinese stockmarket ie the SSE .. this year should be no different and the SSE is already showing signs of strength, readying for a small rally . In fact, the HSi had already charged ahead of the party congress for the past 2 months since 7 sept , quite independent of the Dow.
In 2007 , we had a super rally 3-4 months into the 17th party congress ( 15 to 21 October 2007 ) with SSE peaking on the 16 oct 2007 and HSi peaking on 30 oct 2007. but that was then , the superbull before the great recession..
So what stocks are in play this week ? - selected china related stocks that may benefit from some big announcements from the 18th party congress.
Because Friday nite we had a 139 pt plunge in the Dow, so Monday should see a open gap down .. upon which selected china related stocks may rally .,( click comments section below for any updates on particular china related stocks )
Because Friday nite we had a 139 pt plunge in the Dow, so Monday should see a open gap down .. upon which selected china related stocks may rally .,( click comments section below for any updates on particular china related stocks )
21 comments:
Hi Bill
Are you able to advise on the list of selected china related stocks?
Thanks!
Hi Bill,
Do you expect a major sell off once obama is re-elected for second term.
Whats your view on china stocks, e.g China Minzhong and Yangzijiang
Thanks.
Ex.
i think china related infrastructural stocks should do well due to big stimulus coming in infrastructure to be announced at party congress - cosco , yangzijiang, capland , glp etc but be quick to take profits
and what if romney wins?
what scenario can we expect?
-Thanks
yanlord 1.29 now. Bought earlier at 1.23
thanks Bill'
ps. may i know what is ur email address ?
welcome , tks my email : bille33333@gmail.com
looks like Obama won and Dow rallied as predicted ..
Hi Bill
I notice you mentioned for the China infra stocks " but be quick to take profits " . Does it mean you do not expect a rally after the CCP convention?
I notice you did not mention Midas. I thought that would be the most likely China Infra stock...is there a reason why it was left out?
Thank you
i think the big boys are shorting into the euphoria of obama victory
what can we expect after this? so lost now.
-Thanks
no need to panic - i think tonite the dow should bounce abit
Hi Bill,
Your call for Dow is right.
May I know your target for Dow next 3 to 6 months? Thanks.
Ken
anything can happen in 3-6 months - maybe Israel attack Iran ? or fiscal cliff problem solved ?
if u have not run already yesterday, now is probable good time to take profits on those that already are in profits on
last nite dow plunge was due to congress still dominated by tea party after this election, meaning looming fiscal cliff not resolved by election.
Hi Bill,
Those having a loss should I cut? For example Midas?
Hi all ,
I recapture my comments high above on 6 Nov here
" i think china related infrastructural stocks should do well due to big stimulus coming in infrastructure to be announced at party congress - cosco , yangzijiang, capland , glp etc but be quick to take profits
6 November 2012 11:15 "
now let us take a look at how each stock has fared if u bought them at the tues close of 6 nov and wed high of 7 nov .
capland : tues close 3.40, wed high is 3.50 - gain of 10c or 2.9%
yangzijiang - tues close 91.5 wed high is 96.5= gain of 5c or 5%
cosco - tues close 91 wed high is 94 gain of 3c or 3%
GLP = tues close is 2.74, wed high is 2.78 gain of 4c or 1%
midas ( i din reccomend this ) - tues close 38c , wed high is 39.5 which is gain of 1.5c or 3.9%
so if u follow my reccomendations, i think u will make on 3 out of the 4 stocks assuming u pay 1% on commission and take quick profits as advised as i expect a reversal in the dow after obama victory
but if u did not take quick profits , u will be sitting on losses today ..
according to my analysis , your mistake comes from
(i) money mgt problem : not quickly take half profits after overcoming comm to protect your trade
(ii) bad entry and exit strategy problem
if u guys got any problems understanding what i mean u should come down to my free previews to discuss
anyway if u bet on obama victory with me before the elections ,u would have made some money from the bookie.
best
bill
to those losing money ,I think your problem is either
(i) buying the wrong stock like Midas which did not move at all in the last 3 days
(ii)
Hi Bill,
You are right but Midas was the stock I bought few weeks ago ever since be breeding all the way.
Hi Pipa ,
i capture my comment this morning here ..
"no need to panic - i think tonite the dow should bounce abit
8 November 2012 05:24 "
and then
" if u have not run already yesterday, now is probable good time to take profits on those that already are in profits on
8 November 2012 09:25 "
Hmmmm , looks like tonite we had a little bounce in the Dow as predicted in the morning ..but of course being right about the dow bounce tonite has not saved your beloved stocks from being pummelled in the afternoon beyond recognition from the morning open... for that I apologize ... come to my preview and let me console you with some good advice.
actually I have bearish about heavy supply at 44c for midas since 3 oct for reasons stated in comments of http://sgxswinger.blogspot.sg/2012/09/myanmese-twin-pumps-yoma-interra.html
what price u bot ?
best
bill
Hi Pipa
at this point because of the fiscal cliff issue and the way the chart is behaving , I am more bearish than bullish
however I am totally out of the market and I do not proffer an opinion.
best
bill
Hi Bill
Cut loss Midas already
Thanks
thanks for your reply Bill.
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